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11-23-2011, 05:39 PM
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Neither. MaxPac and Cole drove up the 5-on-5 possession metrics (no duh) which undeniably helped, but a significant portion of the difference in 5-on-5 scoring is due to shooting percentage regressing to the mean.

The two explanations are not mutually exclusive; some portion comes from column A and some portion from column B. And some portion comes from other columns, such as C: the continued emergence of PK Subban.

And yet, the underlying data is radically different year-from-year, but I am told this is of no relevance whatsoever. To the point where I'm starting to suspect some willfull blindless.

I have a lot of trouble with the notion that a team that gets consistently outshot and outpossessed at evens but had a great PP (2009-2010) is exactly the same as a team that can score and outscore 5-on-5 but can't buy a PP goal (2011-2012). These differences mean something. And what about the 2010-2011 team, that could outshoot and outplay at evens but couldn't buy a goal anyway?

I could turn it around; when the PP does turn around, it will be the easy story to claim Markov is responsible, even if the underlying metrics show that such an improvement was inevitable. Nevermind that, with 5 goals over the last 5 games, the PP is already showing signs of starting that turnaround.

It's like crediting the Pearn firing for the turnaround in the Habs' fortunes.
The underlying metrics change year to year, but the results are the same, interesting.

I still contend that the Habs 5vs5 scoring would not dramatically increase without the additions of Cole/Pacioretty although the underlying metrics might say otherwise.

I'm not gonna get into this much further, I agree with most of what you have said here other than a few small points.

Last edited by habsjunkie2*: 11-23-2011 at 05:52 PM.
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