AAA 2011 Ambrose O'Brien Final: #1 Quad City Mallards vs. #2 Regina Pat Canadians
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11-25-2011, 01:08 AM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Actually, now that I look at it, our bottom sixes are made up almost the same too: three pre-expansion guys with three modern players, and two+four. Let's look at the percentage scores they earned and see which bottom-6 has the potential to add more secondary offense:
pre-expansion: Ingarfield & Horeck vs. Popein, Kaleta & Couture.
Interesting one because Horeck, Kaleta and Couture were both 2nd-rate wingers in the war-recovery years, and Popein & Ingarfield both had the opportunity to center Bathgate for a bit. Looking at 30+ years:
Ingarfield: 68, 58, 53, 46, 44, 43, 43, 38, 34, 30
Popein: 49, 45, 43, 38, 37, 35
Horeck: 79, 49, 48, 45, 40, 35
Couture: 52, 45, 44
Kaleta: 88, 62, 52, 47, 45, 43
No contest here. Ingarfield is clearly the best producer among these four and Couture the worst. Popein and Horeck look almost identical except for the fact that Horeck had one big season and gets the edge. Kaleta was a more productive version of Horeck (toughness is another thing). Regina has the clear #1, 3 and 4 here.
Since I have the available data I am going to use ES scoring instead, since that is where these guys are going to get their scoring chances.
Seasons with 25+ adjusted ESP:
Reid: 42, 39, 26, 25
Clement: 42, 39, 32, 31, 27, 27
DeBlois: 48, 40, 39, 37, 32, 26, 26, 25
McCarty: 40, 38, 31, 27, 26
Smail: 51, 40, 38, 35, 31, 29, 27, 26, 25
Savard: 53, 48, 42, 39, 35, 34, 32, 30, 29, 28
Backes: 56, 50, 47, 31, 25
Quad City has a good assortment of even strength scorers down on their lower lines. Andre Savard in particularly surprised me, even though I took this guy in the last B draft. Looks like a slightly more productive DeBlois. Smail looks great but most of this came with playing Hawerchuk. Tough to compare. Backes looks great too, but he's kinda miscast here as a lower line guy when he's typically on scoring lines.
There is an edge in the explosiveness potential of the Quad City post-expansion guys; however, I don't think it is as large as the edge my pre-expansion guys hold. My opponent may disagree - I expect him to! This just basically proves what I've been saying all along - at the MLD level and beyond, don't go trying to split hairs and find major offensive gaps in the bottom six players - they just aren't there.
Kaleta and Couture don't perfectly fit the mold of what you want in a bottom six guy, but then neither does Ingarfield. The only edge I see is that Horeck and McCarty are far and away the toughest players in either bottom six. This line will forecheck like demons.
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