Thread: News Article: "S.O.S" catastrophic season?
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11-29-2011, 04:50 PM
  #7
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
The thing about judging a team because it's been playing better than it's record, or has a great percentage over x period of time is that the season is cumulative and points lost are more difficult to recover with each passing game.
While that's mathematically true, the important notion is predictibility. The Habs' level of play to this point of the season largely suggests a 100, even 110-point team -- and that was sans Markov and indeed as the most injury-riddled club in the league. They have 24 points in 24 games so far. Go 100 point pace the rest of the way, you're already looking at a 95-point total -- and that's really a fairly conservative estimate given how the Habs have played in very difficult circumstances (multiple back-to-backs, injuries).

Or look at it this way: the Habs have lost 4 games they really deserved to win (at least). How many games have they won they really deserved to lose? One, if that? An extra 3 wins, this early in the season, would have them in the second seed. Even just getting a single OT point for these 4 games (the thought exercise suggested by Godin), or winning just half of them, would see them ensconced in the middle of the playoff picture.

Or here's yet another way to view it: there are 8 teams in the East that have scored more goals than they allowed. 7 of them are in playoff positions. I'll let you guess who #8 is.

No, you can't get those "lost" points back -- but if the team continues playing at the same level, it's going to trend up and not down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
Leafs fans for years have, correctly, pointed out that their team played playoff quality hockey for large parts of the season.
They really weren't right, though. They say that because their record flattered them over a short period. As it does right now, really. These are things that happen over short stretches; good teams don't win and bad teams do. Minnesota is probably exhibit A, a terrible puck possession team that's sitting atop the Western standings -- they strike me as this year's version of last year's Dallas. (Mind you, this year's version of last year's Dallas could easily be Dallas. )

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
The habs season is in serious trouble, and not entirely due to injury IMO. The org has weak organizational depth in a number of positions, and a total void in some key ones.
I strongly disagree with this assessment.

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