Thread: Proposal: Jagr
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12-10-2011, 01:49 AM
  #48
The Zetterberg Era
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
You bring up a lot of valid flaws in my idea. I may be overestimating jagrs value, and i certanly am not holding into accout his emotion during this idea. And there is the point that we are contenders now.

Basically what i wanted to do was a little thought experiment in game theory to see what fans think is valuable.

According to game theory every 30 years we should win a stanley cup. Now as we all know we have gone alot longer without winning. But yet we have been so competitive for so long that it doesn't matter sometimes that we have missed out on winning a championship for 30+ years. What we value is the chance at winning a Stanley cup the hope of winning a Stanley cup. But when you combine that with the economic model of sports ownership its gets even more complicated because obviously if you win a Stanley cup but fail to make the playoffs for 29 years you are going to be a failure economically. So ideally the best eonomic model is to put a team that can be competitive for a long period of time. Giving you a chance to have an extended window of winning while putting a product that fans value and will pay for.

And in this paticular instance i was measuring short term loses for long term gains and seeing how it would impact our short term and long term plan as a team.

Short term id say we are fairly affected by jagr's loss. I wont say devasted but we will feel an impact. Long term there is no affect i believe.

In sports you are looking at that perfect window of opportunity where all your key players are in the right age frame to maximize there output. For instance when Gretzky messier kurri coffey anderson lowe all came together at the right time frame that was key for there success.

Right now the flyers will be exeriencing a window like that in about 3-4 years when Giroux jvr voracek simmonds read couts schenn all reach an age where they are going to be most effective. That window may occur sooner depending ont he development of jvr couturier and schenn. Our Defenseman may be mez coburn carle gus and MAB. These are potential knowns.

Now we have a choice as a team. Which window do we want to maximize. Do we want to maximize our current window or do we want to maximize our window of opportunity 3-4 years down the road? This is a difficult one to evaluate. Potentially we could offer Couturier and JVR for Shea Weber. Shea Weber will have much more impact on this season than those two combined. That maximizes our current window but hurts future success potentially if Weber does not resign with us.

Once again this is a hypothetical example.

As a fan We want best of both worlds. We want to win now and we want to keep our talent for the future so we can win later. But in terms of Game Theory that is not logical and would be considered a bad play. In terms of Game theory Winning the stanley cup every 15 years with 14 years of not making the playoffs would be considered not only ideal but incredibly successful.
You're talking to the wrong fan-base here buddy. I understand how a Flyers person would see this. But, we have been in the playoffs for 20 straight years with 6 cup appearances and four victories. So we hurt your Game theory. We trust the Red Wings theory and that is holding onto guys like Smith, and making better moves than rentals like Jagr.

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