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12-14-2011, 05:47 PM
  #114
Miller Time
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
I agree with a lot of points here, but here is a few of my own.

1. Kaberle wasn't brought in to be a number 1-2-3. Martin said in his interview abotu Kaberle, that he was brought in for a PP role, offense and puck movement.
right, but this is a problem in my eyes... with our current cap situation, does it make sense to pay Kaberle 4.25M$ (or anyone for that matter) to be a # 4-5 & used in a limited role?

if we were a team with tons of cap space moving forward, then it's a non-issue, but as it stands today we have 21M$ to spend on 11-13 players...

even at a conservative 3.5/4.5/5.5 for Gorges/Subban/Price, that's 13.5M$ gone (and i think it will be considerably more to re-sign those 3), leaving us with 7.5M$ to spend on 9-10 players (which includes Kost or his replacement, Gill or his replacement, Moen or his replacement... those 3 alone eat up 7.5M$).

So even if the cap goes up by 2-3M$, as of today, we are in a very bad spot for next season just to retain the talent we have, let alone make any kind of upgrades to the roster.

Spacek's ~4M$ was an important "asset" in terms of space opening up... using it on another 4-5 dman, even if a slight upgrade, was not a good decision on it's own, even worse considering we got nothing else out of the deal.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
2. I disagree that he is close to MAB, that is just pure exaggeration.
yeah, you are right, Kaberle is a bit better, but is he 3.25M$ better? At one point in his career, without a doubt... At this stage in their respective career... I'd argue the difference isn't nearly that big ... heck right now MAB is perhaps the best value 4-5 PP specialist dman in the league.

more importantly, if Kaberle's role is to be a 4-5 dman who helps the pp and can move the puck, both roles MAB fills adequately enough, which player is a better value/asset in that role?

The one making 4.25M$ or the one making 1M$?

and a quick look at last year's playoffs, where both players met up in the conference finals...

MAB's even stength TOI in the playoffs last year = 11:10 min/game
Kaberle's even strength TOI in the playoffs last year = 12:07 min/game

there's much more to it, of course, but i guess my point remains that we are paying an awfully expensive premium for a player who will play a role others fill for much less.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
3. I don't really care about his cap hit right now, it means nothing to me in the short-term. If this summer the trade causes the team not to make other signings then I'll whine.
I may very well hold you to that whining

I'm all for optimism, and I obviously hope the team has a plan for how to fix the cap mess they continue to put themselves in... but that's the problem with making so many short-sighted moves and being unwilling to suffer short term pains for long term gains... you end up "stuck" way too often.

With the information in front of us, we are in a very tough situation come July 1st.

btw now and then, perhaps Gomez gets burried/moved, perhaps Cammy gets shipped out, perhaps they have some crazy plan to move subban or price... who knows, lot's of maybe's.

until something gives, all were left with is a team that has very little money to spend on a whole lot of roster spots to fill.

adding a 4.25M$ 4-5 dman made a tough situation that much tougher.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
4. What's interesting is people were willing to pay more for the Wiz who brings similar offensive output and is as "bad" as Kaberle defensively. For the record, I always said I would have been willing to bring Wiz back at 4.5 million, not a penny more though.
i felt the same way about Wiz (i think i was even pegging his value at closer to 4M$...), and was not interested in seeing the habs re-sign him for the UFA market premium he was sure to get...

but I think the market more or less reinforced that Wiz brings more to the table than Kaberle...

why else would Kaberle, a cup winner with a far bigger/more consistent track record who is not exactly over the hill at 33, get 1.25M$ & 3 years less as a UFA than Wiz?

the toughness factor that Wiz adds, on top of the pp/offensive skills, made him a more valuable commodity.

for us, given the make-up of our defensive depth, i think a case could be made that Wiz's value was about 1M$ more than Kaberle... or put another way, had I known we'd end up with Kaberle @ 4.25M$ for 2 more years, I think I would have been more inclined to support a 5-5.5M$ contract for Wiz (just perhaps not @ 6 years).



Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
So yah, I think Kaberle's shortcomings are greatly overstated. The concern about the cap hit in the future is something that concerns me, but I'm not going to stress about it considering it's still december.
nor should you "stress" about it... i certainly not.

but that doesn't preclude me from feeling that the trade, Kaberle for Spacek, was not a good decision for our team given all of the factors to be considered.

Getting Kaberle is fine, even an unquestionably good move as far as short term needs are concerned, but I want to see the team moving towards long-term sustained success, and in that regard, taking on overpriced term without getting any incentives other than moving a slightly less effective dman on an expiring contract, I disagree with the decision.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy View Post
5. If Kaberle puts up 45 points for the next couple of years and the habs are able to free cap space to sign everyone, then I'll have literally nothing to complain about.
yup...
exactly what i've been saying from the get go...

I'd even scale it back..

IF he delivers to a level worthy of his salary

OR (as opposed to AND)

IF the team is able to jettison other bad contracts (Gomez/Cammy) thus allowing the key pieces to build around to get re-signed or added

then I'll be happy.

I'll still think we could/should have done better in the trade as far as getting more assets coming our way given the bigger risk we were taking, but at least it won't turn into a major blunder.


that said,

IF he turns into another Spacek ( a guy unable to give the team 18-20min of quality play despite being paid in the 4M$ territory)

OR

IF the team is forced to part ways with Kost/Gorges or starts low balling Subban/Price/Eller on their RFA contracts (which would be pretty easy to see if they end up on 1-2 year deals)

then not only will the trade have been bad from a on the spot value pov, but it will also prove to be an awful move from an asset management pov.

I'm hoping we get the positive "If's", not the negative ones!

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