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12-16-2011, 12:41 AM
  #33
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirk Muller View Post
but again, thats not reality. The fact is, that stretch did happened. You basically are ignoring it. Even if you put Montreal at this clip for the rest of the year, you have them at 93 points.
A team that starts 1-5-2 but loses 4 games it dominates is more likely to make the playoffs than a team that starts 5-1-2 but has their goalie steal four of the games. If you want to get technical, a team's past record, especially in short stretches, is not nearly as predictive of future record as other things, like possession metrics and scoring chances.

Even if you don't want to get into that level of detail, one has to consider the reality in which the Habs operate: they have been the most injury-riddled team in the NHL by pretty much every method you'd care to count by. If you don't think they will ever get healthy, that's one thing, but the Habs have been heavily shorthanded since literally game 1.

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