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01-11-2012, 08:42 PM
  #8
Appleyard
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Location: Manc/Shef/Utrecht
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Well... barring the biggest collapse since the 30 team NHL started (NY in 2001-02, not making playoffs after holding 12 point lead after 41 games by my calculations), we are already in the playoffs effectively.

I doubt we will win the Division. Bar a NY collapse. So think we will be 4th-5th seed.

Points since lockout for position.

4th. Mean: 103.33. High: 110. Low:99
5th. Mean: 99.83. High: 105. Low: 94
6th. Mean: 95.5. High: 100. Low: 91
7th. Mean: 93.17. High: 96. Low: 88
8th. Mean: 92. High: 94. Low:88
9th. Mean: 90.67. High: 93. Low: 87
10th. Mean: 88.17. High: 91. Low: 83

Our pace is for 108 points (1.32 ppg) at the moment. If this pace is kept.
4th. Philly, 108
5th. Ottawa 97-98
6th. Toronto 96
7th. New Jersey 94-95
8th. Pittsburgh 92
9th. Washington 90
10th. Winnipeg 88

If we drop in the second half of the season to Pittsburgh pace (1.12ppg) which is average 8th seed pace, we would still have 100 points at the end of the year, which in best case scenario puts us 4th (2 out of 6 years this would get you 4th), worst case scenario puts us 6th (only once has 6th got more than 97 points) and in general gets us 5th place.

If we drop to Buffalo pace we end up with about 94 points, which is always in the playoffs.

If we drop in the second half of the season to Montreal, Tampa Bay or Islanders pace (about 0.93ppg) which gets you 11-12th at best over a year, we end with 92 points, which is half the time 8th, half the time 9th, never 10th.

So we can be a losing team in the second half of the year and still make the playoffs, we need 40 points from 41 games to be guaranteed. Or 36-38 points to have half a chance.

So 23-14-4 gets us 4th more often than not, never less than 5th.
So 21-16-4 gets us 4th if very lucky, 5th mostly, 6th if very unlucky.
So 19-18-4 gets us at best 6th, 7th if very unlucky.
So 18-19-4 gets us 7th mainly, worst case 8th.
So 17-20-4 gets us in the playoffs unless everything else goes against us!

I know it is silly, but the only teams in Flyers history that were bad enough to not get 40 points from 41 (which guarantees playoffs) in terms of PPG are:

06-07, 91-92, 90-91, 89-90, 71-72, 69-70, 68-69. (and 91-92 and 90-91 could have.)

Personally, I see worse case scenario being 19-18-4, which gets us 96 points, 6th or higher about 90% of the time (7th if extremely unlucky), and best case being 26-11-4, which gets us 1st-2nd if vvvvvvvvvvery lucky, most of the time 4th seed.


Last edited by Appleyard: 01-12-2012 at 10:20 AM.
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