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01-22-2012, 06:40 PM
  #118
Hollywood3
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OHT34 #13: January 22, 2012

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 34 JANUARY 22, 2012

Well, this was a week of upheaval. #1 Sask lost twice to #3 Manitoba. #2 UNB also lost twice more, and is now sub-.500 against A level teams. In fact, the Squirrels are no longer #1 in the AUS since they have slipped behind Moncton.

Moncton had a great week and move from A- to A and to the top of the AUS rankings. Acadia and Alberta won their games against non-A level teams, so they basically tread water. The six A level teams are within milli-rankings of each other.

McGill, UPEI, and the Urban Cowboys all did enough to stay put but not enough to jump from A- to A. I know that in the official rankings there will be an over-rating of McGill and UWO. McGill is barely beating these B level teams. McGill has dominated the OUA. But in inter-conference games the last three years that have been:

2009-10 1-4-1 (v. UNB, Alberta, and UBC)
2010-11 0-1-1 (v. SFX and UNB)
2011-12 0-1-1 (v. UPEI)
total:``1-6-3


It is my opinion that if the Top Six had 15 games against B level teams they would likely equal or surpass McGill's record against such teams. I am not of the view that McGill could replicate even Alberta's 2-4-2 record against A level teams, let alone do .500 or better.

The Urban Cowboys are even more difficult to rate. The OUA West is weaker this year. So their schedule has been predominantly against C level teams. They also have not played any non-conference games against CW or AUS teams. So we mostly have to assess their performance against B level teams, where they have gone 6-0-1. Here are the scores:
Oct. 8 Carleton 2 Western Ontario 4
Oct. 14 Western Ontario 4 Nipissing 5 SO
Oct. 15 Western Ontario 3 Toronto 1
Nov. 11 Western Ontario 4 Waterloo 2
Dec. 1 Waterloo 3 Western Ontario 4 SO
Jan. 20 Western Ontario 1 Lakehead 0
Jan. 21 Western Ontario 1 Lakehead 0

Basically, their results look similar to McGill's, only based on a smaller sample size. They have not beaten any B level team by more than 2 goals.

Amongst the B+ teams, SMU's split will Dalhousie keeps them stuck. UQTR had two more wins over B level teams, and they are very close to A level. Lakehead showed they can lose 1-0, which means they are close. But that 0-4 against A level will be hard to overcome for Lakehead. Calgary, meanwhile, sinks below UBC and to the B level. St. FX and Calgary do have 4 wins each against A level, which is their rankings salvation. UBC is now done with B and C level opponents.

Jan. 18
UNB 5 St. Thomas 1
Moncton 4 UPEI 2
Acadia 3 Dalhousie 2 - OT
Queen's 4 RMC 1
UQTR 6 Concordia 4

Jan. 19
Guelph 3 UOIT 1
Toronto 0 Ryerson 3

Jan. 20
Saint Mary's 3 Dalhousie 4 - OT
UNB 1 Moncton 5
UPEI 4 St. Thomas 3 - SO
StFX 3 Acadia 4
Ryerson 4 RMC 0
Carleton 0 McGill 1 - SO
York 4 Brock 5 - OT
Nipissing 4 Queen's 3 - SO
Windsor 2 Waterloo 3 - SO
Laurier 3 Guelph 5
Ottawa 4 Concordia 8
Western 1 Lakehead 0
Saskatchewan 2 Manitoba 4
Lethbridge 0 Alberta 5
UBC 2 Calgary 1

Jan. 21
Carleton 5 Concordia 4
Windsor 2 Laurier 4
St. Thomas 2 Moncton 7
Dalhousie 4 Saint Mary's 6
UPEI 8 UNB 7
UOIT 3 York 5
RMC 2 Nipissing 3
Toronto 3 Queen's 0
Western 1 Lakehead 0
Saskatchewan 1 Manitoba 3
Lethbridge 1 Alberta 6
UBC 3 Calgary 2

Jan. 22
Brock 1 Waterloo 3
UQTR 6 Ottawa 3
Acadia 1 StFX 0


````````````````-----------------------------------------------------------------
`````````````` |`` A``|`` B``|`` C``| Conf. |Conf-X|Oth-CX|``CIS``|OtherX| TOTAL |
``-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|`` A``````````|``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
| 1 MANITOBA^``| 5 2 1| 5 1 0| 5 1 0|15``4 1| 1 1 0| 0 0 0|16``5 1|4 2 1 |20``7 2|
| 2 MONCTON````| 5 5 0| 4 0 0| 6 1 0|15``6 0| 5 2 0| 0 0 0|20``8 0|0 0 0 |20``8 0|
| 3 SASK.``````| 5 2 1| 2 1 1| 8 2 0|15``5 2| 4 0 0| 0 1 0|19``6 2|0 0 0 |19``6 2|
| 4 UNB````````| 3 4 1| 6 1 1| 5 0 0|14``5 2| 1 0 0| 5 0 0|20``5 2|1 2 1*|21``7 3|
| 5 ACADIA```` | 4 4 0| 4 2 1| 7 0 0|15``6 1| 5 1 0| 1 0 0|21``7 1|0 2 0 |21``9 1|
| 6 ALBERTA^`` | 2 4 2| 4 1 1| 8 0 0|14``5 3| 3 1 1| 0 0 0|17``6 4|3 0 0 |20``6 4|
|`` A-```````` |``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
| 7 MCGILL```` | 0 0 0|11 2 2| 6 0 0|17``2 2| 1 0 1| 0 1 1|18``3 4|0 2 1*|18``5 5|
| 8 UPEI`````` | 5 3 0| 3 4 0| 5 1 0|13``8 0| 4 2 1| 3 0 0|20 10 1|0 0 0 |20 10 1|
| 9 W. ONTARIO | 0 0 0| 6 0 1|12 2 1|18``2 2| 0 0 1| 0 0 0|18``2 3|0 6 0 |18``8 3|
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|`` B+```````` |``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
|10 ST MARY'S``| 4 7 1| 3 0 0| 5 0 1|12``7 2| 0 1 2| 3 1 0|15``9 4|0 0 0 |15``9 4|
|11 UQTR`````` | 2 0 0| 8 4 1| 7 1 0|17``5 1| 2 1 0| 1 2 0|20``8 1|0 1 0 |20``9 1|
|12 LAKEHEAD`` | 0 4 0| 4 0 0|12 2 0|16``6 0| 2 1 1| 2 0 0|20``7 1|0 2 0 |20``9 1|
|`` B``````````|``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
|13 UBC````````| 1 5 0| 4 1 1| 6 1 1|11``7 2| 0 0 0| 0 0 0|11``7 2|3 5 0 |14 12 2|
|14 CALGARY````| 4 6 0| 2 4 0| 4 1 1|10 11 1| 1 1 1| 1 3 2|12 15 4|1 1 0 |13 16 4|
|15 ST F-X```` | 4 8 2| 0 3 0| 2 1 1| 6 12 3| 3 1 0| 0 1 0| 9 14 3|2 0 0 |11 14 3|
|`` B-```````` |``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
|16 OTTAWA+````| 0 2 0| 6 6 1| 7 0 1|13``8 2| 1 0 0| 0 2 0|14 10 2|0 1 0 |14 11 2|
|17 NIPISSING``| 1 1 1| 5 4 2| 6 1 1|12``6 4| 4 0 0| 0 0 0|16``6 4|0 0 0 |16``6 4|
|18 CARLETON+``| 0 1 1| 7 4 2| 4 3 0|11``8 3| 1 1 1| 0 1 0|12 10 4|1 1 1*|13 11 5|
|19 TORONTO````| 1 2 0| 4 4 2| 6 2 1|11``8 3| 3 1 0| 0 0 0|14``9 3|0 2 0 |14 11 3|
|20 WATERLOO`` | 0 1 1| 2 2 1|11 3 2|13``6 4| 2 1 0| 0 0 0|15``7 4|1 1 0 |16``8 4|
|21 CONCORDIA``| 1 1 0| 4 7 2| 6 2 0|11 10 2| 1 1 0| 0 0 0|12 11 2|2 0 0 |14 11 2|
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|`` C+```````` |``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
|22 BROCK``````| 1 1 0| 4 3 0| 6 6 1|11 10 1| 1 0 0| 2 2 0|14 12 1|0 1 0 |14 13 1|
|23 QUEEN'S````| 0 2 0| 5 6 2| 5 1 0|10``9 2| 4 0 0| 0 0 0|14``9 2|0 1 1*|14 10 3|
|24 RYERSON````| 0 2 0| 6 5 1| 5 2 1|11``9 2| 1 3 0| 0 0 0|12 12 2|0 2 0 |12 14 2|
|25 DALHOUSIE``| 1 9 1| 1 4 1| 4 0 0| 6 13 2| 2 5 0| 0 0 0| 8 18 2|0 0 0 | 8 18 2|
|26 WINDSOR````| 1 3 0| 2 4 1| 5 5 0| 8 12 1| 2 1 0| 0 0 0|10 13 1|0 2 0 |10 15 1|
|27 LETHBRIDGE | 2 8 2| 2 6 0| 1 0 1| 5 14 3| 0 2 0| 0 0 0| 5 16 3|0 3 1*| 5 19 4|
|28 YORK`````` | 0 2 0| 1 4 1|10 2 3|11``8 4| 0 4 0| 0 0 0|11 12 4|0 2 0 |11 14 4|
|29 REGINA```` |1 10 1| 2 3 1| 1 1 0| 4 14 2| 1 1 2| 1 0 0| 6 15 4|1 2 0 | 7 17 4|
|`` C``````````|``````|``````|``````|`````` |``````|``````|`````` |``````|`````` |
|30 GUELPH```` | 0 1 2| 0 7 2| 7 4 0| 7 12 4| 0 2 0| 0 1 0| 7 15 4|0 2 0 | 7 17 4|
|31 LAURIER````| 1 2 0| 3 7 1| 3 5 0| 7 14 1| 1 3 0| 0 0 0| 8 17 1|0 0 0 | 8 17 1|
|32 ST THOMAS``|1 10 2| 2 1 1| 0 4 0| 3 15 3| 1 6 0| 0 1 0| 4 22 3|0 0 0 | 4 22 3|
|33 UOIT`````` | 0 2 0| 2 5 0|2 11 1| 4 18 1| 2 2 0| 0 0 0| 6 20 1|1 1 0 | 7 21 1|
|34 RMC````````| 0 3 0|0 10 1| 3 6 0| 3 19 1| 0 1 1| 0 0 0| 3 20 2|0 1 0 | 3 21 2|
``-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
``^ MANITOBA OTW OVER ALBERTA REVERSED
``+ OTTAWA WIN AND OTL V CARLETON FORFEITED
``* INDICATES TIE GAME

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