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01-29-2012, 11:05 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2004
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Originally Posted by Levitate View Post
Eh, I think you guys are kinda missing the points of stats, even though I don't agree with advanced hockey stats being too predictive at this point

Like talking about Richards' high shooting percentage, yes of course it's not taking into account how he's playing positionally, but it's supposed to indicate a general average over the course of the season, through the times when he's playing bad positionally and therefor not scoring goals/getting good shots, and when he is getting into good shooting position, etc.

it's just pretty much an average and to some degree it is reasonable to expect that a player will trend towards his average over the course of a season
There is truth to what you're saying. However, the opposite is completely ignored as well. If you are going to say that Richards goal-scoring should come down based on his own historical numbers, doesn't that mean that his assists should increase? And shouldn't Dubinsky's shooting percentage progress towards his mean as well? My problem with that article is that it doesn't account for the potential positive averaging that could happen while solely focusing on the negative averaging that could happen.

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