Hockey Prospectus Predicts Rangers Can't Sustain Winning in 2nd Half of Season
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01-31-2012, 09:30 AM
Join Date: May 2007
Originally Posted by
Boyle Knows Santa
Take out 5 games where they scored a lot of goals and didn't give up any and their goal differential goes down?!?! Who would have guessed!?!?
Weak argument at best. Their offense is definitely better than ours.
That being said. We can absolutely beat them in a 7 game series. Play a 7 game series against them 100 times and I wouldn't be surprised to see each team win 50.
I agree it's a weak argument, but outlier games don't indicate the true value of a teams' offense. Certain teams, when up 4-0, take off the gas and focus on a "prevent defense". Others go for 6-0 or 9-0. I don't know what kinds of teams NYR and Boston are with respect to this aspect, but I do feel like the goal differences are skewed somewhat by those games, even if it isn't by the factor that I initially claim. I would prefer to give the D credit for putting up a 0 in those games than the offense for putting up a 9. That being said, I also believe that the NYR defense is superior to Boston...they have a lower goals against per game and they have been in tighter games overall. Also, Lundqvist is better than Thomas this year, and I believe it's by more than the numbers show. Rask may be better than Biron, but come playoff time, that doesn't matter.
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