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02-04-2012, 05:06 AM
Jason MacIsaac
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Originally Posted by rye&ginger View Post
I actually do refer to stats often but to say they can 'predict the future' is a bit of a stretch. Nothing can really do that, you can take stats and other qualitative info like 'player X is battling hard lately and can turn the tide of the game'.

And I agree, I look at the more advanced stats before much else. GF and GA are the best team stats out of the basic ones, not points/wins/losses. The advanced stats take it even further of course. We need longer term data to really see how valuable it is though. A few seasons is really not long enough just yet.

This stuff is over the casual fans head so we cant expect it to be discussed on TV. Its made for online.
Fenwick has a .62 correlation with future scoring at the team level. In terms of predicting that has a strong correlation.

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