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02-04-2012, 10:50 AM
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Draft position vs Playoffs: your cut off point

My question is really simple. There's been a lot of talk about the value of draft position compared to: eking into the playoffs, losing early and ending up with mid-round pick.

So where is your cut off point? If the choice was making the playoffs this year or getting say the 10th pick, which would you take? What about the 11th or 12th? At what point would you say its no longer worth it and making the playoffs is better?

Seems to me that only the 1-4 draft positions bring enough guarantee of future success that it would be worth making that exchange. Otherwise, I'd rather watch a round or two of playoff hockey with the small hope of a final.

Or do 5-10 bring that much more of an advantage? Don't forget this scenario assumes making it into the playoffs and therefore playing substantially better than what we're seeing these days (we would be playing at the level of last year or the year before, in which, all things considered, we had a percentage chance of making the finals, especially two years ago).

The calculus of age is important. I probably have 40 more years of Habs hockey to live for -- will a 5-10 draft pick substantially increase my chances of seeing another Cup above actually making the playoffs even in the 8th position??

I don't see this team finishing in the bottom 5 barring more injuries. They will finish in that 5-10 range and that's where the calculus gets interesting.

I guess I'm not ready to stop cheering and investing emotion in the team unless someone can statistically demonstrate that 5-10 draft order picks are a better long term play than actually making the playoffs.

*Have not done any actual calculating. Just seems numbers 4 and above have more guaranteed success than anything below.

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