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02-07-2012, 09:21 AM
Les Wynan*
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
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Originally Posted by TehJuxtaposer
Alright then. If shot quality is a moot point, then if the Sharks have the highest shot average in the league, why aren't they first in scoring?
Because, as I've said a thousand times now, shooting percentage in small sample sizes is entirely luck. If something is a skill it should be repeatable. Shooting percentage at the team level has shown not to be. Over a multiple-year sample all teams regress to league average SH% of 8.1%. Even over the course of a single season, all teams regress heavily towards that number as well as a PDO (SH% + SV%) of 1000 overall.

And, of course, shot differential is the true indicator of team talent and the Sharks are 6th in the league in Fenwick Close and 5th in the league in even strength goal differential so the numbers sometimes match up even halfway through a season.

Last edited by Les Wynan*: 02-07-2012 at 09:48 AM.
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