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02-07-2012, 11:12 AM
  #19
Splitbtw
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Join Date: Aug 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Because, as I've said a thousand times now, shooting percentage in small sample sizes is entirely luck. If something is a skill it should be repeatable. Shooting percentage at the team level has shown not to be. Over a multiple-year sample all teams regress to league average SH% of 8.1%. Even over the course of a single season, all teams regress heavily towards that number as well as a PDO (SH% + SV%) of 1000 overall.

And, of course, shot differential is the true indicator of team talent and the Sharks are 6th in the league in Fenwick Close and 5th in the league in even strength goal differential so the numbers sometimes match up even halfway through a season.
I'm also going to suggest you just start your own statistics thread and posters can argue over players and stats with you there. It really does seem like you use what's convenient to support your argument and call everything else luck.

I would say the Sharks of previous seasons are definitely reasons why shot differential is not an indicator of success. Even ignorning that, whenso many variables involved in a shot and quality is not one that can be quanified, then your constant use of shot differential as an argument gets tired sooner rather than later.

When you find stats to support your argument: "see look at all these advanced stats."

When you can't: "it's just bad/good luck."

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