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02-18-2012, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Teddy10Beers View Post
I don't see how the currency exchange rate is much of a risk for Winnipeg or any other Canadian franchise for that matter. The US Dollar has been in a secular decline against the Canadian Dollar for the past decade. The USD/CAD peaked at around 1.62 in January 2002; today it's trading at 0.99 and got as low as 0.93 in the fall of 07 (coinciding with the spike in Brent oil futures). The Dollar has declined by approximately 40% against the Loonie during this time. With salaries being by far the largest operating expense of an NHL franchise, the owners of the Canadian franchises have received a huge boost in their bottom line from currency translations alone.

Going forward there is a much stronger bias for a continuation of the Dollar declining against the Loonie than vice versa. Canada is in a much stronger fiscal condition than the US by almost any metric and the trends are in Canada's favor. US Debt/GDP is at 106%; Canada's is only 83%. The primary risk to the Loonie against the Dollar is a worldwide financial collapse (akin to 08-09) that would cause commodities to tank. If anything there's a much more likely Geo-political event in the Mid East that cause another spike in crude.

One of the dumbest things the players association did was to agree to have all salaries paid in US Dollars. Apparently there's no one at the PA that has any experience in the Forex market. Think of all the Canadian hockey players living in Canadian markets getting paid in US Dollars. The purchasing power of their salaries has taken a big hit over the past several years. If I was a Canadian hockey player I'd be demanding that the PA rectify this in any extension of the CBA by allowing players the option to be paid in Canadian dollars rather than the sinking US Dollar. If I'm a US player I'd rather be paid in Loonies than Dollars.

In any event, the currency exchange risk for the owners of the Jets is no where near the top of the list. Even if it where you can easily hedge currency risks with swap contracts.
Thanks Teddy. You`ve done a terrific job of explaining to some of your fellow countryman the dilemma they are in. Most of them have no idea of the amount of financial leverage that has been used to get them to where they are. A great book on the subject is by Tony (Anthony) Boeckh `The Great Reflation`

TNSE is well aware of what happened to the last ownership group and they have done everything in their power to make sure the Jets are viable for a very long long time.

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