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02-27-2012, 12:21 AM
  #113
palindrom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
1. HF Boards is a bunch of hockey fans who dream up trades to kill time. They are not NHL GMs. Clear that up for you???

2.So if I am understanding the main tenet of your argument, is it that b/c teams were willing to acquire "cheap" goalie options in the past 1-2 years and were NOT willing to give up the hypothetical "significant value" that it would take to acquire Schneider, you believe that they are not CURRENTLY or will not in the FUTURE be willing to give up said value?

So by this logic, any player who a team has not acquired in the past 1-2 years will never be acquired in the future? For example, b/c Vancouver hasn't acquired Steve Ott yet, there is no possibility they will acquire him tomorrow? Am I actually following you right on this?
1. I know proposal is often dreaming to kill time, but if Schneider is really not available, why is there 10 time more Schneider proposal coming from Vancouver fans than proposal from not available player like Price, Quick, Rinne, Lunqvist. Or is it that Schneider is avaible?

I just think there is a correlation between the number of proposal including a player (by fan of his own team) and his availability. (correlation mean greater than random chance.)

2. You misunderstand me, Hockey Managing is not an exact science like math, Its similar to stock market, and even more similar to the fine art market It often lead to misunderstanding when people try to make a ''rule'' from a general statement, apply them to every possible scenario and invalidate it as soon as it dont work once. Its about finding the general odds that an event happen and even if we make mistake, the point is to be right most often than not. Also, unless the condition change, the past is often a good indication of the future (assurance company make a ton of money from this.)

3. So the interesting question is what could make a Schneider trade possible in the future while he wasn't traded in the past? (and evaluating the odds of each)

- A better timing
- A team improving his offer for Schneider
- Gillis lowering his asking price for Schneider

Well, i will start a thread eventually about this question if he is not traded tomorrow. (The Value of Schneider 2010 vs 2011 vs 2012 and speculating if Gillis took the optimal decision or not.)

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