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02-29-2012, 11:14 AM
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30Rinks
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Was Turning Down 4 1st Round Picks Wrong?

As we all know, 4 1st round picks were offerred to Burke at the deadline for...

Schenn
Kulemin
MacArthur
Grabovski

Each of these players are NHL regulars - but none of them are NHL Allstars (past) or likely in the future (with Grabo being the closest)

Taking a look at the numbers, what does the average 1st round pick produce?

Over the past 10 years...

2001:
5 NHL All Stars
16 NHL Regulars

2002:
5 NHL All Stars
21 NHL Regulars

2003:
14 NHL All Stars
25 NHL Regulars

2004:
3 NHL All Stars
16 NHL Regulars

2005:
4 NHL All Stars
18 NHL Regulars

2006:
4 NHL All Stars
19 NHL Regulars

2007:
2 NHL All Stars
15 NHL Regulars

2008:
4 NHL Allstars
17 NHL Regulars

2009:
2 NHL Allstars
11 NHL Regulars

2010:
2 NHL Allstars
10 NHL Regulars

2011:
4 NHL Regulars

We've got some outliers there, and the most recent years don't give time for development... but it does indicate a fairly strong calculation for the development of a 1st round pick.

If we average it out over 10 years, you have a 15% chance of drafting an NHL All Star. Yes, the 1st overall picks are far more likely then the 20th pick, but overall the distribution is fairly even after the first pick.

You have a 57% chance of drafting an NHL regular (defined by being someone that plays most games for their team).

Take out the last three years to give time for development and those numbers shoot up to 19.5% for an All Star & 70% for an NHL regular.

What does this tell us?

With 5 first round picks, the numbers tell us that the "10 year assets" will give

3.5 NHL Regulars, with 1 of them being an all star.

Again, just going by the percentages, you could trade those 4 players above for a VERY high likelihood of having an NHL all star within 10 years. Would you do that? Add that to our already bulging prospect pool and we could have an extremely talented club in 5 years.

Playoffs or no playoffs this year, burke himself says this team will get blown out - so why not build for the future? Ideally this happened 5 years ago, but what can you do.

For the record, I like cmac, but getting a 1st for him would have been a steal. Kuli is similar because of his down year - schenn and grabo, sure, the arguments for keeping them are there.

Want more justification? 9 of our current players were 1st round picks. Don't look at the fact that they suck, look at the fact that they are actual NHL players. 1st round picks, more often then not, make the NHL and have solid careers.

Just something to think about while we sit in our sorrows

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