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02-29-2012, 02:10 PM
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Toronto
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Originally Posted by 30Rinks View Post
As we all know, 4 1st round picks were offerred to Burke at the deadline for...


Each of these players are NHL regulars - but none of them are NHL Allstars (past) or likely in the future (with Grabo being the closest)

Taking a look at the numbers, what does the average 1st round pick produce?

Over the past 10 years...

5 NHL All Stars
16 NHL Regulars

5 NHL All Stars
21 NHL Regulars

14 NHL All Stars
25 NHL Regulars

3 NHL All Stars
16 NHL Regulars

4 NHL All Stars
18 NHL Regulars

4 NHL All Stars
19 NHL Regulars

2 NHL All Stars
15 NHL Regulars

4 NHL Allstars
17 NHL Regulars

2 NHL Allstars
11 NHL Regulars

2 NHL Allstars
10 NHL Regulars

4 NHL Regulars

We've got some outliers there, and the most recent years don't give time for development... but it does indicate a fairly strong calculation for the development of a 1st round pick.

If we average it out over 10 years, you have a 15% chance of drafting an NHL All Star. Yes, the 1st overall picks are far more likely then the 20th pick, but overall the distribution is fairly even after the first pick.

You have a 57% chance of drafting an NHL regular (defined by being someone that plays most games for their team).

Take out the last three years to give time for development and those numbers shoot up to 19.5% for an All Star & 70% for an NHL regular.

What does this tell us?

With 5 first round picks, the numbers tell us that the "10 year assets" will give

3.5 NHL Regulars, with 1 of them being an all star.

Again, just going by the percentages, you could trade those 4 players above for a VERY high likelihood of having an NHL all star within 10 years. Would you do that? Add that to our already bulging prospect pool and we could have an extremely talented club in 5 years.

Playoffs or no playoffs this year, burke himself says this team will get blown out - so why not build for the future? Ideally this happened 5 years ago, but what can you do.

For the record, I like cmac, but getting a 1st for him would have been a steal. Kuli is similar because of his down year - schenn and grabo, sure, the arguments for keeping them are there.

Want more justification? 9 of our current players were 1st round picks. Don't look at the fact that they suck, look at the fact that they are actual NHL players. 1st round picks, more often then not, make the NHL and have solid careers.

Just something to think about while we sit in our sorrows
How do you know the 4 players? Burke never mentioned them. Don't pretend to know. Also, don't pretend to know if the pick was bottom of the first or middle. Based on all this how the heck can anyone debate whether it was a good idea or not.

birddog* is offline   Reply With Quote