: News Article:
Holmgren faces tough decision with JVR
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03-01-2012, 11:15 AM
Join Date: Aug 2009
Originally Posted by
One thing I hate about this article is all the talk about if he was lucky? I'm sorry I hate when people base statistics on luck. Well if every player was luckier they would all score 100 points. I know a lot of you believe in the corsi and fenwick ****, but I believe GM's and coaches haven't really caught on to it for a reason. Let's base a players evaluation on if he was luckier and not how he really performed. (not saying that corsi and Fenwick is based on lucked)
He is playing 15 mins a game for a reason this year. He has been extremely inconsistent. That has nothing to do with luck. You can say effort or whatever effects him being inconsistent, but luck? Look at Voracek, I would say he is the unluckiest if you go that way, but he plays more and busts his ass every shift. I actually think Voracek just has no finishing ability, not unlucky. Sorry a little rant about basing statistics on luck
. I hate it. I also understand people probably won't agree at all with this post but its just how I feel. I also know there is luck involved in sports, but lets not judge players performances on it.
I have a math related job and have worked with many quants in the past (even a former professor of Nuclear Physics), so I respect math. I also believe that looking at on base % vs hits in baseball makes intuitive sense. Corsi however, is like counting the number of times a batter makes contact with his bat on the ball (fouls, hits that led to outs and on base) vs the number of times pitched at. That intuitively does not make sense to me.
I almost vomited when I heard a reporter ask Lavy if he looks at Corsi or Fenwick a few weeks ago.
Flyers have said in the past they keep their own stats. Other organizations to look at stats. (If I recall correctly, Babcock or someone else from the Wings mentioned that there was no puck possession statistic they could get). I would guess that any organization would use their own determined scoring chances or rank shots in terms of their position and develop proprietary models. These bloggers and reporters use Corsi and Fenwick because they are from public websites and including them makes them sound smart.
All analysis is not wrong, it should just be taken with a grain of salt IMO.
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