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03-05-2012, 11:10 AM
Grave Before Shave
Join Date: Sep 2009
Originally Posted by
I think there will be a bigger turnover than what you expect, Homer always tries to upgrade the team, your team gets worse by losing Carle without replacement.
If we re-sign Jagr one top-nine forward will be moved for a defenseman, I expect one of vanRiemsdyk, Simmonds or Voracek to get traded. We have eleven top nine forwards, if healthy we have to play two at the fourth line.
Regarding Jagr, think Teemu Selanne. Last offseason the only other UFA player in the 80 point range got $6.7MM (Brad Richards) while Selanne signed at $4MM, roughly 60%. Jagr will be around 60 points this season, Laich had 60 points two years ago and got $4.5MM (7,5% of the upper limit). Expecting an upper limit of $69MM a 60 point player in his prime should get around $5.2MM, if Jagr takes a paycut similar to Selanne expect something around $3.2MM. That's the lowest I can see.
Your figure on Voracek is good. A young 45 point winger with upside on a short contract costs between 4% and 5% of the upper limit (Kostitsyn '11, Wheeler '11, Voracek '11). Using a $69MM upper limit its aroun $3MM.
Kubina and Grossman are both 20min defensive defensemen. Kubina should be a bit cheaper due to his age. Marc Methot signed for $3MM last year, Jonathan Ericsson for $3.25MM, both around 5%. That would be $3.6MM for Grossman, a little less for Kubina, probably $3.2MM.
I would offer Bobrovsky around $1MM for the backup job, if he can earn more in Russia he should walk, there are always capable backups available in free agency.
If Jagr truly doesn't care about money, he'll take a bigger cut than $3.2 million to stay here. Otherwise it is unlikely that he remains IMO. Also, Bob isn't a free agent so they won't be offering anything. He's on the team unless they trade him (which I think they should do).
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