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03-12-2012, 04:17 PM
Unwelcome Spectre
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
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Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
I like his analysis as well, but it relies on other teams helping the Kings. They can't get in without help from other teams - as likely as that help may ultimately be (no team is going to go undefeated the rest of the way).
You're correct here -- I was just taking issue with the statement "there is no magic number", and wanting to phrase it "the magic number exists, but requires assistance from other teams to reach".
Assuming every team continues to earn points at their current rates so far this season, this is how the final standings project:

STL (C) 114
VAN (NW) 109
DAL (P) 96
DET (C) 108
NAS (C) 105
CHI (C) 96
PHX (P) 93
SJS (P) 92
CGY (NW) 90
LAK (P) 90

Leapfrogging San Jose is a VERY tall order even with the head-to-head games vs. them (the reality is that the Kings and Sharks are likely going to split those points or come close to it), hence the current 35% likelihood that it's possible. The Kings have to go on a significant run, which has yet to happen this season.
Totally agree with everything here, including the analysis. This exact kind of projection is what I do when I try to figure out the record the Kings would need in the remaining games... and right now, without depending on winning SPECIFIC games, that comes out to needing 93 points (as your chart above shows), which translates to a record of 8-4-1.

Like you, I am concerned at the lack of ability the team has shown to put together a consistent run all season. The closest they've managed has been the four-game winning streak in October on the strength of Quick's ASTOUNDING shutout streak, and the 6-0-3 stretch in December/Jan (the last Stevens game and the first 8 Sutter games). I'm beginning to think for the Kings that the fabled "winning streak" is like a unicorn -- always talked about, but rarely if ever actually seen...

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