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03-13-2012, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Forsead View Post
I have seen alot of posts lately on this board talking about elite talent and that it's important for Montreal to ''tank'' to get some. The reason given is : that's important to get a top 5 pick, because that's where you find elite talent and I wanted to look if it's was true. I looked in every drafts in the period of 1979-2000 and found the players that I thought was either having an elite talent when they were playing in the NHL or elites careers (a very good player that can be even a gamebreaker on some seasons, but is good on a long period of time, but never a big superstar). Since I'm not perfect, I perhaps have missed some names or made some mistakes. But I think it's still a good list.

Elite talent drafted in the top 5 1979-2000 :

Mike Gartner, Rick Vaive, Dave Babych, Denis Savard, Larry Murphy, Dale Hawerchuk, Ron Francis, Brian Bellows, Scott Stevens, Pat LaFontaine, Steve Yzerman, Mario Lemieux, Pierre Turgeon, Brendan Shanahan, Mike Modano, Mats Sundin, Jaromir Jagr, Eric Lindros, Scott Niedermayer, Alexei Yashin, Chris Pronger, Paul Kariya, Wade Redden, Joe Thornton, Vincent Lecavalier, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Dany Heatley.

Arguable players :

Zarley Zalapski, Al Iafrate, Kirk Muller, Bill Guerin, Owen Nolan, Roman Hamrlik, Bryan Berard, Patrick Marleau, Roberto Luongo, Marian Gaborik, Tom Barrasso.

Elite talent not-drafted in the top 5 1979-2000 :

Mark Messier, Ray Bourque, Michel Goulet, Glenn Anderson, Dale Hunter, Mats Naslund, Paul Reinhart, Kevin Lowe, Paul Coffey, Jari Kurri, Bernie Nicholls, Steve Larmer, Al MacInnis, Chris Chelios, Doug Gilmour, Phil Housley, Pat Verbeek, Cam Neely, Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull, Gary Roberts, Gary Suter, Joe Nieuwendyk, Vincent Damphousse, Brian Leetch, Teppo Numminen, Joe Sakic, Theoren Fleury, John LeClair, Eric Desjardins, Mathieu Schneider, Mark Recchi,
Teemu Selanne, Jeremy Roenick, Rod Brind'Amour, Alexander Mogilny, Rob Blake, Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Bure, Keith Tkachuk, Doug Weight, Sergei Zubov, Alexei Kovalev, Peter Forsberg, Markus Naslund, Zigmund Palffy, Sergei Gonchar, Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur, Daniel Alfredsson, Jarome Iginla, Marc Savard, Zdeno Chara, Marian Hossa, Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk, Andrei Markov, Henrik Zetterberg.

Arguable players :

Thomas Steen, Mike Foligno, Anton Stastny, Brent Sutter, Hakan Loob, James Patrick, Ray Ferraro, Tomas Sandstrom, Rick Tocchet, John MacLean, Kevin Stevens, Dave Gagner, Stephane Richer, Kevin Hatcher, Craig Janney, Jyrki Lumme, Peter Bondra, Ray Whitney, Jason Arnott, Ryan Smyth.

Note 1 :Some players had their career derailed by injuries and I perhaps have missed some of theses.

Note 2 : About the goalies front, since it's so hard to claim elite talent on a goalie I put the really obvious one (Hasek, Roy, Brodeur) and since Luongo and Barrasso are the only ones drafted in the top 5 in that period that have amount to good players I put them both as arguables.

As you can see :

28 to 39 elite players have been drafted in the top 5

60 to 80 elite players have been drafted after the top 5

So around 32,5 % of the elite talent drafted has been taken in the top 5 of a draft during the 1979-2000 period. It also need to be noted that alot of europeans are in the list of players drafted after the top 5, because it was seen has a bigger gamble and they were less scouted. Also, it seem that in the present era the elites players are even more often took in the top 5, probably because of the evolution of drafting methods. In conclusion, it appears that drafting elite talent is really hard without a top 5 pick, I don't like my team to loose and you can't tell to the players to play bad, but I wish we get a top 5 pick this season !

I hope you enjoy and I just wish to create a good discussion !
No reason to can get elite players if you hire the good scouts and GM does his due diligence. Pacioretty was best player in his draft at 22nd overall. Giroux was best his draft year at 25th, Chara was best his draft year at 135. The secret is covering a wide base of players and being a good judge of talent.

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