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03-15-2012, 10:50 PM
  #90
BigG44
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Parise is a tougher nut to crack.

First off, I believe he's a better target for Dallas right now. Suter is a great D, and you'll have to pay him like he's a legitimate #1 D in free agency. My fear is that part of his magic is his union with Weber. Will he be as effective and special with a mediocre D partner or just slightly above average if they put Goli with him? I think Suter is a bigger risk than Parise even though I'd argue another Top D is more important for the long term success of the team.

2nd, will Parise even be available? My initial thought is he's more likely to be available than Suter. NJ's money issues don't look like they'll be solved before July 1st, but they'll have to spend money next summer to reach the floor. The issue though is how will the floor be defined in the new CBA? I just can't imagine it remains at a fixed $16 million below the ceiling, but you know the NHLPA isn't going to want to cave too much on the floor. They'll want as much money as possible to be required to be spent by teams.

So, the rumor is the cap will rise to $69 million before July 1st, but the new CBA should kick that number down to $60 million before the start of the season. I believe Lebrun said the NHL is warning teams that they are responsible for recognizing this, and they shouldn't expect any passes to become cap compliant when/if the cap falls after the CBA. So let's just guess the floor stays consistent and goes to $44 million. Even though the league is funding the Devils, I'd still expect them to spend over the floor. The Devil's already have $42 million though invested in 13 players with no goalie signed. I think the inability of the Devil's to provide a large front-loaded contract plus greater needs at other positions will ultimately see Parise go to the highest bidder.

I also don't agree with Heika again that the option is Parse + Souray or Suter + Prospect forward. Even if you somehow land Parise, Brenden Morrow's career as a Top 6 forward should be coming to a close. At his age and recent health history, he an the team will hopefully realize the benefits of possibly extending his career with a lesser role in the Bottom 6, no PK time, but still contributing on the PP (a la Holmstrom in Detroit and Modano in his last few years in Dallas). IMO, a perfect off-seaon would see Dallas land one Top 6 forward from outside the organization, and then allow Morrow, Glennie, Fraser, and the college forwards to duke it out for the last Top 6 spot.

Carter going to LA and Nash hopefully going to the NY Rangers should seem to give Dallas an advantage in a run at Parise. I am skeptical that Gaglardi would go crazy to sign him, but I think that's the only way he lands in Dallas. GMJN and Gaglardi would have to basically go against their many comments saying that they aren't going to be like Buffalo and finance their future on July 1st. I guess the question is will they identify Parise as a special enough player to open the wallet and overpay. I'd be interested to see piqued workout some of the advanced stats on Parise's effectiveness. I understand them well enough, but not so much that I should be breaking them down for someone else.

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