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03-16-2012, 12:45 AM
  #99
LatvianTwist
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Pardy's contract is looking awful now.

This is my dream lineup next year:

Parise - Benn - Fraser/Vincour/Morrow/Glennie/College Forward
Eriksson - Ribeiro - Ryder
Ott - Fiddler - Dvorak
Nystrom/Vincour - Wandell - Garbutt/Burish

For the forwards;
Parise will probably cost 7.5 (I think we'll end up having to pay a bit more than most for obvious reasons).
I'll put Benn in at a cap hit of 5.5 per. Not sure that's what it will be, but it should be around there.
Dvorak should be cheap. ~1.75 at most. If he wants more, just find a capable replacement for this price or cheaper.
Wandell shouldn't get more than 1.75, as well. But I'd be willing to push his a bit, as he's still young and has some potential.
If Burish is willing to take 1.5, keep him. In a very limited role, though. If not, just give Garbutt his spot.
The other spots are extremely cheap ELCs or low contracts.

On defense;
I'd give Souray ~2.5 per. 2.75 at most. He wouldn't be in the NHL if it weren't for us, so he can take a slight pay cut for that.
I'd give Fistric ~2.5, 2.75. He's probably worth less, but with the way we overpay defensemen, it'll be around here.
Larsen is a wild card. I'm hoping we sign him to an Eriksson type contract. It may seem bad now, but it'd be a steal in a couple years. 24 over 6 years. Expensive now, but worth it later on.

Bachman should resign for ~2 million. He hasn't proved enough to earn anything more.

So, if this were to all happen, the totals come out to:
Forwards - 41.1 Million
Defense - 22.2 Million
Goalies - 5.55 Million

I'm hoping my numbers just aren't adding up. So, going back and cutting Burish and Dvorak out by replacing them with 800K players, dropping Pardy's salary, trimming Larsen's down to ~2 million, and just cutting off ~250K from Fistric, Souray, Bachman, and Wandell's contracts, frees up ~7 million, which puts us under.

Maybe some of my guesses are just bad, or my math is wrong, but I don't see how it all works. We've currently got 23.8 million in our forwards, 11.2 in our defense (w/o Pardy), and Lehtonen. Assuming the cap will be 60M, that gives us 21.45M to resign everyone and add FAs. Benn and Parise will command about 13M together, and then we just have 1 bottom line hole to fill (just for now, Morrow is in the top 6, and Vincour and Wandell are on the 4th line). I'd like to see it filled by Garbutt, actually. Cheaper, definitely a 4th liner, but showed some offensive flair too. He's a cheaper, younger Burish. Wandell shouldn't cost more than 1.75 to resign. So the 5 forwards added end up costing ~15M, bringing the forward's total to 38.8M. (Note - this is with Parise. If we don't get Parise, this number would go down by almost 7M).

The defense confuses me. Souray should come back for ~2.5, 2.75. Resign Fistric to a similar contract. And then there's the conundrum of Larsen. I actually think he's more prone to an offer sheet than Benn. He's young and unproven enough that it wouldn't set off a **** storm, but has shown great potential and could be a target. As I said before, I wouldn't mind him signing a higher cap-hit, longer term contract, but rethinking it, I'd rather see a 2-3 contract at 2-3M. I just haven't seen enough consistently to know that he's worth that kind of money yet. I'll give all 3 of our upcoming FAs a 2.75 contract for 2 years, and I expect them to sign something similar to that. So that comes out to ~8M added to bring us to a total of 19.2M. Pretty cheap for an average defense.

Bachman resigns for 2M (probably 1-2 years) or he walks. He isn't worth anymore yet. 2.5 at an absolute max, only because the extra .5M is worth never seeing Raycroft in a Stars' uni again. So 6M for goalies.

Our cap would come out to 64 exactly with Parise. Can't happen if it's at 60, but again, cut some corners here and there and I'm sure we could work it out. Without Parise, we're at ~57M.

Something seems off. I hope I didn't just spend half an hour writing this only to find out that my math was wrong...

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