Thread: Pre-Game Talk: San Jose @ Los Angeles 3/20/12
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03-19-2012, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by rsaturday View Post
Are you going to give me 32 to 1 odds if I want to place a bet? Good luck getting those odds in Vegas. The odds are not exactly 50/50 because one team is better than the other, but they are close.

It is true that the chances of the Kings winning 5 in a row may have been 32 to 1, but those odds apply BEFORE the string of games started. What has happened in the last 4 games does not have any bearing on what will happen in the next game. That is like saying that red has hit 4 times in a row, so odds are the next one will be black. It simply is not true and is called Gambler's Fallacy.

just kidding. Just wanted to say you were wrong even though you are right. For anyone who disagrees with his post, you can research mathematical probability to back him up.

The whole "in a row" thing is only a minimal chance because the record should accurately reflect the true advantage. In a coin toss, 10 heads in a row is unlikely because heads doesn't have a true advantage over tails. So deviation from statistical probability is minimal. But it has nothing to do with whether the 11th flip would be heads or tails. If anything, your best bet is to bet Heads again if you were at a casino.

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