Thread: Pre-Game Talk: San Jose @ Los Angeles 3/20/12
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03-19-2012, 04:03 PM
  #39
The Big Giant Head
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rsaturday View Post
Are you going to give me 32 to 1 odds if I want to place a bet? Good luck getting those odds in Vegas. The odds are not exactly 50/50 because one team is better than the other, but they are close.

It is true that the chances of the Kings winning 5 in a row may have been 32 to 1, but those odds apply BEFORE the string of games started. What has happened in the last 4 games does not have any bearing on what will happen in the next game. That is like saying that red has hit 4 times in a row, so odds are the next one will be black. It simply is not true and is called Gambler's Fallacy.

waaait a min... that's virtually what i said. The previous string of wins have no bearing on the kings chances of winning this particular game...thus i said they have a 50% chance of winning or losing. now Obviously its not even at 50% because one team may be better than the other but for the sake of simplicity we'll call it 50/50. And im familiar with Gamblers Fallacy in that the fallacy comes in that an individual for example flipping a coin and landing on head 5 times in a row would think that the likelihood of it hitting heads again are much slimmer because of the 5 previous heads even though that has no bearing on the next coin flip which would still make it 50/50. But the odds change with each consecutive flip and result when your clustering them together, so instead of thinking each individual coin flip as being separate you group them together. On average, if you flip a coin 6 times you should get about 3 heads and 3 tails, although this isnt always the case... but on average. the likelihood of flipping heads 5, 6 or 7 times consecutively greatly changes with each flip.

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