Thread: Speculation: Fire Todd Mclellan
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03-20-2012, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Regardless, even if results are all you care about, they're still #1 and #2 on the Sharks in +/- per 60 minutes at even strength. Doesn't really matter who's scoring the goals when you're outscoring the opposition (extremely high quality opposition at that) at the rate Thornton and Pavelski. They're also among the league leaders among forwards in that category.
I'll give you the narrative for yourself and others. It comes from reading many articles and hearing interviews about and with several players. The Sedins are the best starting example. They have had a huge uptick in offensive efficacy since their start in the league. They are known for going home and working on different offensive strategies and tweaks every summer. They stay ahead of the curve for the most part before those defending them can catch up. I am not saying that they couldn't do other things to improve, but IMO they are getting a lot of mileage through what goes on between the ears. I don't think they are even near the top in physical gifts. The paradigm helps them continue to get high quality chances. The guys who fall off on SH% and stay there are few in number but they are usually marked by relative inability to adapt when others adapt to them or when some physical issue imposes itself on their game. The common term for aging players is losing their legs and is usually accompanied by a drop in SH%.

In some senses, trades are used to freshen or revamp strategies for teams. New wrinkles every year. A new AC or HC can have the same effect. The use of video has greatly accelerated the ability of teams to adapt to opponents and for teams to modify their own strategies. All of these issues play into SH%. SH% is close between teams but it doesn't take a lot to give an advantage. 0.5% over a year is huge. That is 25 goals or so. By your count of 6 goals per win, that is 8 points in the standings. I do see teams play for the 0.5% advantage by emphasizing quality chances. We just had Trotz and the Preds and I watched a tweaked version of his 3 man legal pick play entry. Same play as about 3 years ago when he started it and the one I saw was on steroids. Designed to spring a guy free on the goalie from a defended blueline with the defenders standing up and no dump in.

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