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03-20-2012, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Just a big thumb up!

its rare i can find someone who doesnt overestimate team effect on a goalie stats. (there are study about it if you are interested, its likely to be about .006 on saves %)
I do think there's a team effect in goaltender performance/save percentage,the penalties/PP sv% theory with Backstrom is along those lines. For even-strength save percentage (which is what I prefer) I don't think the effect is big enough to really worry about all that much. At the very least the (statistical) tools at our disposal aren't good enough to tell us whether there is an effect, how it affects save percentage, and how big/small it is.

It's basically the defensive side of the shot quality thing. Every team in the NHL tries to create high-quality chances and prevent high-quality chances against, but with the crude statistical measures we have there's no evidence that they're able to do it sustainably better or worse than any other team in the league. Parity is a word that's thrown around a lot and in some cases it's overused such as in the playoff races where the loser point makes it seem like more teams are in than not. In terms of shot quality/shot prevention quality the parity in the league makes it very difficult to tell if there's any team-wide ability there. Teams are trying to make it an ability but the teams are close enough in talent that it's difficult to see any difference there.

I would like to get your link about goalie peaking age. if you could find it.

I really think because of the current oversupply of good goalie, young goalie are underused and its probable some teams missed the opportunity to make full use of a goalie peak (Schneider?)

Here is a small study i made about the performance of AHL goalie call up..maybe you will find it interresting
Your sample size is way, way, way too small to come to any big conclusions. It's also something you should be looking at over multiple seasons since callup performance this season could very easily be a fluke. You'd still be looking at an incredibly small sample size but looking at even-strength save percentage for all post-lockout AHL callups might give you a better idea That said, I think you got one thing absolutely right in your post:

In many case, the difference between a NHL and AHL goalie could be more about opportunity than performance.
It takes about 150GP for an individual goaltender's save percentage to normalize to something around their "true talent" at the NHL level. With only 30 starting spots available the first impression is absolutely crucial for a goalie to continue to get chances to establish himself at the NHL level.

What that means is that if a bad goalie getting called up can go on a hot streak and establish a reptutation that keeps him in the NHL for a few years. Remember when Steve Mason was a Calder/Vezina/2014 Olympian candidate? He basically ran into a huge streak of luck for his first 41 games or so (8 shutouts in his first 41GP!) and has been abysmal since. That first-year performance landed him more opportunities from Columbus to be a starter, then a pretty big second contract despite evidence that he wasn't good because Scott Howson is a terrible GM.

On the other end of the scale I like to look at Tim Thomas though he's an especially odd choice. From the time he left college (at 22) to 26 or 27 he was never really given an opportunity to be a starter as a professional at any level. He headed over to Europe for a couple of seasons and did a good job, came back over and finally got a real chance in the AHL, and then managed to finally get his chance in the NHL to platoon for a season before taking the starting job (and he wasn't good until his 3rd full NHL season).

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