The Rebuild Thread-"You be the GM"
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03-27-2012, 12:07 PM
Join Date: Dec 2008
Originally Posted by
But here we are, 5 years in with nothing to show. Had we instead used picks, particularly the higher picks like Weber and Hansen on junior A players who might be in the lineup by now might we have been better off? Particularly when Mike Priest was shouting "Win now!" So, to ask the question that the Smiths once asked, "How soon is now?"
To focus on the college picks from round 3 and up...
After Will Weber was drafted, the only players to have had a real NHL impact from there (pick #53) to the end of the draft are Wayne Simmonds (61) and Jamie Benn. Alec Martinez is the only college player from that draft after Weber to have made an impact, and he was 20. Carl Hagelin was taken at 168, and is the only truly good prospect to have come after that spot. Now put Jake Hansen after Weber, and remove Simmonds from the "taken after" line. 2007 was a weak draft overall.
Goloubef was taken #37 in 2008. The only decent prospects after him in that round are Roman Josi (38) and Travis Hamonic (53). The Rangers struck gold with Derek Stepan at 51; he was committed to Wisconsin, played two years there, then turned pro. I have no idea where my 2008 draft guides are, so I can't find a scouting profile on him. That annoys me too, since those weren't cheap.
Kevin Lynch was taken 56th in 2009. So far, no one taken after him has made an NHL impact, and it's still tough to say who the best prospects are...we're talking about only three years after that draft.
TJ Tynan was taken last year. The only NHL player taken after him is Andrew Shaw (5th round by Chicago), and he was an overager anyway.
Basically, there aren't cases of missing out on an immediate impact player, or even an immediate NHL player, by going the college route. When I look back through the CBJ draft history, it looks like that's what the 2002 draft was. It looks like an attempt to get immediate impact players by drafting overagers, and every single one of them flopped. And in those cases, there were impact players who were taken after those.
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