The Rebuild Thread-"You be the GM"
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03-27-2012, 01:13 PM
Join Date: Dec 2008
Originally Posted by
Not Enrico Ciccone
I view it as a low risk, low cost, opportunity to augment your talent pool, supply depth and occasionally hit on a guy who becomes a serviceable and in some cases very good hockey player. An organization like the CBJ absolutely should be involved in this process to a much higher degree than they are. They aren't going to win battles for unrestricted free agents with most other organizations given the state of the franchise, but they could very easily incrementally beat another organziations financial commitment to an undrafted kid and offer a much quicker opportunity to play at the nhl level.
Look, it isnt the silver bullet and the fail rate will significantly beat the success rate - but there are good players to be found here and the level of money being spent is certainly within our means. There is no reason we couldnt be competitive in this arena and it has bugged me that we havent been more so recently. This isnt make or break for a franchise, but I think you shouldn't turn your back on it.
Put another way, the CBJ tried to sign Matt Read after his junior year, but couldnt get it done. He then signs with the Flyers for a contract that basically is what we are now paying Allen York or Brett Lebda...
I think in retrospect tossing in a couple more $100,000 or making the money guaranteed would have been a good idea.
I'm not suggesting that the team not be involved in any way, or stay away on the basis of percentages. If you ever read "Moneyball" (and I hate that book), there's a reference made to the fact that the failure rate for high school pitchers is extremely high. Billy Beane took that to the extreme, capped off by throwing and breaking a chair when his scouting director used a first-rounder on one. That kid actually had an MLB career and was serviceable. Point is, I actually have a copy of the original study on that issue (done by Bill James), but he's not suggesting avoiding them at all costs. If you have a phenom and he's a high school pitcher, you take him. Avoiding someone simply because they don't fit the ideal profile, or because they fall into an unfavorable profile, is dumb.
But we have no idea what the Matt Read negotiations looked like. He may have said that he would never sign with Columbus no matter what, in which case a bit more money isn't going to make a difference. Everything I've seen indicates that Columbus has been very active since 2008 in trying to sign college free agents, without success. There's also been some decent prospects who have snagged rookie camp invites, which is another sharp contrast to the early years (although Riley Cote and Chris Campoli were future NHLers who were in a Columbus rookie camp).
Nothing exists in a vacuum. A prospect with options isn't simply going to sign with the team offering him the most money because it's the most money.
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