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03-28-2012, 01:01 PM
  #33
LordHelmet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hull Fan View Post
If I don't know that he won't help make the WCF you don't know he'll help make the playoffs. I'm saying it's a big gamble for an unknown quantity that could have poor ramifications for the club's future, a future in all probability with a much smaller cap next cba, than the possible positives he could bring. College doesn't necessarily equate to NHL.
What's the big gamble? Your 'worst case' seems to be that he becomes a great player and we have to give him a bigger 2nd contract a year earlier.

I contend that if that happens we'll actually be better off. Look at Benn's progression..

He made the team on his 1st ELC year and was promising.
He backed it up with a very nice 2nd ELC year
In his 3rd ELC year, Benn is now a legit nearly ppg center and is going to land a very large, long term RFA contract that GMJN will be delighted to sign.

Now, what if we had been able to sign Benn to bridge contract after his 2nd year in the league? As solid as he looked then, that deal would've been substantially smaller than what he'll get this summer.

By burning Smith's first ELC year now, we could actually get a discount on him if he follows that same progression.

He plays some games, looks strong, and burns an ELC year this spring. Then he makes the team out of camp this fall and has a Benn-like rookie season. Then he has a solid Benn-like 2nd season. At that point, we re-sign him long term for $2.5 or $3 million.

I don't think this is 'small picture' at all. It's preposterous to pin our playoff hopes on a kid out of college.

Maybe management sees something 'Benn like' in the kid and thinks that can be better than anyone expects sooner than anyone expects. And if he does follow the progression above, then we get him signed to a much cheaper 2nd contract.

Anyway.. however it works out, I find it funny that a 'big gamble' involves a young guy getting to be too good and us having to pay him. Again, look at Benn.. Are you actually upset that he's gotten to be so good and will land a big contract?

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