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03-29-2012, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
I would say PPG is a stretch, not because he couldn't do it, but more because so many of his minutes will be defensive in nature and he shares a team with a young, dynamic playmaker at the same position.

I've said it many times before, but easily the best comparison for me is Patrice Bergeron. Sean and Patrice are almost exactly the same size with Sean being slightly bigger. While Patrice was more dynamic offensively during his rookie season, I would suggest that Sean started better defensively. By his second NHL season (separated by the lockout with a full AHL season), Patrice was a 70 point forward, stayed there until his concussion, and is now getting close to that level again.

So, given his start as a stronger defensive player, but weaker offensive threat, I would expect Sean to get to about 40-50 points next year.

For the immediate future, I'm a huge fan of a Voracek - Couturier - Talbot 3rd line, but I see Sean developing into one of the best 2Cs in the league who could be a 1C on many teams. To make the Bergeron comparison better, Sean definitely needs to work on his faceoffs. He hasn't been bad, certainly for a rookie, but it's a big part of being a Selke candidate to be winning 55%+ of your draws.
I like that analysis, I put PPG with the idea that, like Poulin, he will not likely hit it every year due to his defensive responsibilities, but instead that, (I feel) he will hit 80~ points at least once or twice.

Looking back at rookie centers Faceoff percentages compared to current (last 2 years~):

Bergeron: 49.4% (now 58%~)
Datsyuk:47.7% (now 55%~)
Richards: 45.7% (now 50%~)
Crosby: 45.5% (now 53%~)
J.Staal: 37.1% (now 48%~)
E.Staal: 43% (now 50%~)
Toews: 53.2% (now 58%~)
Krejci: 48.2% (now 52%~)
M.Koivu: 47.4% (now 53%~)
Kesler: 46.7% (now 54%~)
Weiss: 46.3% (now 53%~)
Spezza: 45.8% (now 55%~)

Average rookie year: 46.3%
Average now: 53.25%
Increase of: +6.95%

If that average is factored in, Couturier now being at 47.0%, should be about a 54% faceoff guy in 4-5 years time, at worst a 52%, and at best a 56%. IMO, that is good enough for a Selke, being Kesler level.

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