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03-30-2012, 03:17 PM
  #17
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kjell Dahlin View Post
but it is possible to create a very basic and simplistic (VERY simplistic!) model with two parameters imo: (Giveaways and takeaways differential) + (+/- of a player adjusted with the team +/- and the player's TOI).
If you don't mind me criticizing, all the stats used in your metric have problems.

Giveaways and Takeaways are not counted consistently across arenas; some places give as much as five times more than others. You can adjust for that, but the other problem is that giveaways are often accrued by players who handle the puck a lot and often try to pass it around -- the giveaway top-30 often ends up looking like a billboard of the top playmakers in the game. (In a similar fashion to Gorges' perceptive comment on how a lot of blocked shots means you're in your zone a lot.)

+/- has issues, foremost among them though the fact that shorthanded goals and empty netters count -- this penalizes players with offensive talent who are on the PP and in high-leverage scoring situations a lot, while favoring defensive players who play the PK and high-leverage defensive situations. If there's one thing micros have taught us, it's that context matters.

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