Sabremetrics/Microstats in Hockey
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03-30-2012, 04:55 PM
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: St-Augustin, Québec
Originally Posted by
Again, the CORSI stat has not impressed me. I look at the CORSI leaders and they don't correspond to the best players. Brett Hull never had the puck but he was one of the best scorers of all-time.
You make a blanket statement like puck possession wins hockey games... how true is this? What is there to back this up?
You come out with a statement like 'puck possession wins hockey games'... well, maybe as a general rule that's true. But it certainly doesn't always seem to be the case.
sorry for the quick edit on your post to get quotes
the main evidence that goes in favor of puck possession is that on average, teams that get hit more are positively correlated with wins, whereas teams that hit more are negatively correlated with wins. Main explanation I see for this is time of possession.
In general I agree with you on CORSI stats. Even though they tell something, I'm not sure it tells a whole lot. The main thing that comes out of CORSI IIR is that they found shots was a better predictor of future goal scoring performances than actual goals are. Meaning shot% is not of great value.
As in anything, stats won't help you predict 100% of the outcome. There will always be randomness in anything that involve humans. Stats will only help you so far. Even though analytics don't have all the answers, the question to answer to answer is does it help make better decisions.
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