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03-30-2012, 05:30 PM
  #47
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roke View Post
I addressed this slightly up thread (with hits too... I assume you're working your way down) but as they're counted in the NHL hits, takeaways, and giveaways are basically useless when it comes to any kind of evaluation. If the Habs (or anyone) wanted to use them and get something out of it they would have to put come to a definition of each event and track them in-house.
Okay. That works for pro scouting and teams that play against the Habs. How do you do it for minor leaguers that you want to build your team with?

I know... something is better than nothing. Simply saying that it's not all that easy to do and requires a tremendous amount of effort.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roke View Post
I'm cherry-picking the Hull thing and I hope I get this posted before everyone piles on, but Hull led the league in shots on goal on 3 occasions and regularly broke 300 shots from 1988-1997. We don't have the data to be absolutely sure, but he was probably a good possession player because of the huge number of shots he could get off. He may not have carried the puck from end-to-end but when he was on the ice his team likely had the puck more than the oppposition and his work away from the puck and working with linemates probably meant he would be a high Corsi player... probably.
Truth is... I don't know. I think he's an interesting example in theory because so often he would just sit in the slot and Oates would feather a pass to him and he'd score. Hull wasn't a particularly good skater and didn't deke out players the way Denis Savard did but he was a hell of a scorer.

When I look at Gomez, his CORSI numbers are among the best in the league, but he never produces. I'm sorry but I don't buy the "luck" explanation, it's simply not good enough. Year in and year out there will be players with lower CORSI who will produce more than that guy does. So how useful is that stat to begin with?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roke View Post
As with most things, it's a matter of actually having the data in order to truly be sure.

Gomez has dropped into an elevator shaft this season and has been terrible. I think his play being different than the shot-metric based expectations MathMan, myself (I picked him for my fantasy team because of the Pacioretty-Gomez-Gionta trio lighting it up last season), and others had are for a number of reasons.

For one, we under-estimated how good Pacioretty is -he's close to being a star winger if not already and Gionta hasn't been a slouch there either. Gionta and Pacioretty were probably driving the play for Gomez last year just like Pacioretty is doing the main driving on the Desharnais line this year. Gomez' getting injured multiple times hasn't helped but his play has dropped off to a point (and his cap-hit) mean that there's no point waiting around any more.
But see... I could've told you that he was the best player on that line. I said long ago, Pac was carrying Gomez. That's because I would watch the games. Pac produces with anyone because he shoots the puck and can actually get it in the net.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roke View Post
If Molson wants to win Gomez won't be here next year. My expectation was to have him around for this season soaking up minutes (like an old, soft-tossing starting pitcher who just eats up innings) while Eller and Desharnais were given more time to develop. With Gomez' early injuries that didn't happen, his play has taken a considerable hit since his second injury of the season, and Eller and Desharnais are actually doing better than I expected. Had Gomez been able to soak up the minutes and the disastrous December-February Gauthier moves not been made the Habs probably would have been better off. It didn't happen.
His play sucked before the injury though. You have CORSI to back you up but I've got the point totals. You say it's luck but I say he sucks. At the end of the day if a guy isn't producing and youv'e cast him in an offensive role, you've got to rid yourself of him. I don't care what the microstats say, you can't let the tail wag the dog. 1 year without a goal just isn't acceptable.

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