Sabremetrics/Microstats in Hockey
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04-03-2012, 02:52 PM
Join Date: Jul 2007
Originally Posted by
I am not totally disagreeing with you here Lafleurs Guy (especially with
) - analytics, modelizations… are decision making tools
designed to help the decison makers. They are not a substitute for the decisions makers! - but just to keep the discussion going forwards... Mathletic already provided an interesting answer to your objection:
Whatever ratings will basically work from top down if I can put it this way ... whether it's a win shares system, point contribution, WAR, adjusted +/- and so on ... They will calculate how much of an impact a player had, say defensively, on his team compared to a replacement player. That is, how much better is Chara defensively compared to a border line AHL/NHL d-man for example.
Ratings, in general, don't compute that a guy made 65 hits so he gets that much credit for defense plus 105 blocked shots, so he gets that many more credits and so on.
So, in general, a defensive rating will implicitly include intimidation for example or whatever intangible you may think of. Since, if Chara actually scares player to the point that they won't drive the net as much than if player X was on the ice ... who's borderline AHL/NHL ... instead of Chara then it will reflect in his defensive stats whether rates of shots/against, goals/against, adjusted +/- or whatever system you use
..." (end quote) - Ref.:
In French: outils
à la décision.
I get this in principle. I get what this is supposed to do... but how accurate is it? I've seen WARP and VORP stat applied in Sabremetrics for baseball and it's problematic there too. First you need to define what an average replacement player looks like. Second, in hockey it would be harder to capture because there's a goalie on the ice stopping pucks. How many of those pucks are stopped because Thomas is awesome vs. Chara helping to prevent the goals? It's a symbiotic relationship right?
I understand the intention here and I applaud the attempt but it's abstract in baseball. WARP is one of my least favourite stats there due to the problems I mentioned above. Apply it to hockey? Man...
However, let's take a look.
Who are the top ten at each position in WARP? Who are the top ten in defensive rating among defensemen? Let's take a look.
Originally Posted by
I think this is big misconception of the utility of statistics in general. One knows the limits of a statistical model. To advance in it, you try and find and define those "unknown" datas. Anything and everything can be measured, depends for what and how.
It's outside the spreadsheet, because we have yet to bring it in.
Billy beane only had the statistical tools, he didn't have the players. I rather go the boston way, and have both
That's another thing that I've mentioned here. Hockey is at the dawn of SABR. I think that it will improve as more statiticians develop more stats. Right now though? It's interesting, has value but I don't think it's at the stage where you can build a team solely with SABR.
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