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04-03-2012, 10:28 PM
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
How often does the best team in the league win the cup? This is a good analysis:

Given the structure and the samples sizes involved, the best team in the league is much less likely to win the Cup than it is not to.
A couple of things here...

1. Over the course of a 7 game series anyone can win. No doubt about it. It's not surprising at all that the 'best' team doesn't usually win over the course of the playoffs.

2. For some reason, the league seems to allow rougher play in the playoffs than in the reg. season. Don't know why that is but it sure seems to happen a lot. Witness the Canucks vs. Bruins. If the parameters of what's permitted suddenly changes, then the 'best' team in the reg season may not be the 'best' team suited to win in the playoffs.
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I asked you if the the force of hits matter outside of their immediate impact on the game. You're telling me "I don't know and nobody can find out, but I say it does and you must accept it on faith", which is essentially what you're saying when you say something is 'impossible to quantify'.

You bet that's a cop out.

I don't duck questions and you should know that by now. And if I'm wrong on something, I have no problem admitting it.

The whole point I was making was that a hit from Chara isn't distinguished from one from Deharnais... As we all know though, there IS a difference. My question was HOW do you quantify it? Where does it show up? I've said that it's very difficult if not impossible to quantify. However, those who've actually played the game know that when you get rocked by a player you're less likely to go to those danger zones than you otherwise would. What I'm saying is though... it's difficult to quantify this. As I said, the player may still go to the net but might not go to the net as hard. But it's difficult if not impossible to capture this.

Not sure why you are now saying that this is somehow a cop-out when this is the point I was starting from to begin with. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something here or maybe you are...
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Because he's a super-special in a way that even Lidstrom isn't, or because he's a very good defenseman and very good defensemen help teams win hockey games?

I can buy the latter. The former is an article of faith. You're gonna have to support that claim if you're gonna make it.
He's a completely different player than Lidstrom. Pronger sucks on international ice surface and under tight Olympic rules but in the NHL playoffs he's pretty awesome. Both players can do things the other can't and both are HOFers. If you asked me who I'd want on my Olympic team it would be Lidstrom regardless of what team I had. If you asked me who I'd rather have for the NHL playoffs though? I'd look at my roster first and then make the decision. Tough to choose anyone over Lidstrom as he's arguably a top 5 blueliner of all time but I'd look at my team and then decide.

As another example, if I'm starting from nothing as an expansion team and had to choose between Yzerman vs. Messier, I'd personally take Yzerman. I think he's more skilled and I feel like he'd help me more than Mess would. (Many people would disagree with me on this point but it's not important here...)

However, Messier brings a different skill set than Yzerman does. And if I'm already packed with skilled scorers I may want a different dimension on the team. As an example, if it's 1987 and I know that I've got Gretzky, Lemieux and tons of other scorers in my lineup already, I might forgoe another scorer in favour of a guy like Messier who might not be as skilled but is skilled enough and brings a different dimension to my team.

Make sense?
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
So was Marian Hossa. So was Ty Conklin. I'm sure Conklin made three different finals because he was so intimidating from the bench or maybe he has magical powers. Or maybe it's just coincidence.

Ty Conklin, man... three Finals on three different teams. No way that's a fluke.
The difference is that Pronger was the best player on his team in most of those cases (arguable in Anaheim where there was Niedermayer and Selanne) those other guys weren't. Moreover, Pronger took a team that had no business being in the playoffs to begin with and led them to the finals. Pronger's points per game actually goes UP in the postseason man. He's a monster in the playoffs.
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
How come Chara didn't make them awesome the way he apparently did Tim Thomas?
Because he didn't have a magic wand.

I don't think Chara made Thomas great. But I do think he made his job easier. How much easier... well that's the point I was trying to make - it's tough to actually know. You can try the equivalent to WARP in hockey (whatever that stat is) to try to figure it out and maybe it will give you some idea but I think it's tough to quantify this as you're trying to figure out if the chicken or the egg came first. It's a symbiotic relationship and it works.

I think Carey Price wishes he had the kind of protection in front of him and if he did I think it would make a difference in his numbers. You're able to make a lot more saves when you can actually see the puck. And you can see the puck a lot better when your giant blueliner is clotheslining people in front of your net for half the game.

Last edited by Lafleurs Guy: 04-03-2012 at 10:35 PM.
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