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04-04-2012, 12:11 PM
  #144
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
At a certain level, the depth of Sabrmetrics you can get to is simple cerebral masturbation for those who spent years counting things and/or learning advanced statistical methods that they were disappointed to find out no one really cares about (no matter how "interesting"), and in fact, often do a better job without through observant experience. Watching the game, studying the human side of players, and recognizing patterns to find "the right fit" remains the best way for GMs to evaluate an asset that they are looking to trade/acquire/draft, but all these advanced stats are definitely useful for fairly extensively describing how productive a player was (in terms of countable events, at least).
There's an interesting, hidden contradiction implied here: you don't believe studying the "what has gone before" will lead to useful prediction of the future, but you value observant experience and "observant experience" is nothing else than knowledge of "what has gone before".

One way to look at analytics is precisely as the wide-spread collection, quantification, communication, and normalization of observant experience, with the goal of sharing this experience, recognizing patterns, and understanding what factors matter and to what degree. It does exactly what you describe as valuable, except with more data and less subjectivity.

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