Sabremetrics/Microstats in Hockey
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04-06-2012, 10:54 PM
Join Date: Jul 2007
I haven't forgotten about this thread. I've been thinking about it a bit over the past few days. Thanks to the folks for providing some insight here... it's been enlightenign as I hoped it would be. I'm going to think about some of my thoughts some more before weighing on anything.
BTW, very cool article here:
Key quote: In its first year of publication in 2009, “Hockey Prospectus” used GVT, along with other advance statistics, to correctly predict the Blackhawks winning the Stanley Cup.
In fact, Seppa has picked the past three winners of the Stanley Cup Finals (series only) and in the correct amount of games
Now THAT's pretty wicked.
GVT is btw, Goals vs. Threshold: "GVT is a broad, brush stroke stat,” Seppa said. “It breaks down into offense, defense, goalies and shootouts. Of course it’s more complicated than that, but it serves its purpose as how good a player is.”
And here is a Glossary of Terms as provided by them here:
GVT: Goals Versus Threshold
is a measure of how much value a player contributes above what a replacement-level player would have contributed. GVT is to hockey what VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is to baseball. It’s broken down into four categories — offense, defense, goaltending and shootout — so it’s used for all players on the team. Each player is assigned a positive or negative number. Divide that number by six, and you get a concrete number of many wins that player was responsible for, like baseball’s WAR.
A projection system for future results based on finding comparable players throughout hockey history and projecting what the current player likely is to do next season. It’s named after Mick Vukota, an old Islanders enforcer, who is in the bottom 1 percent of players all time with a -12.7 GVT.
A number put on puck possession based on shot attempts. If a player is on the ice for five shot attempts created while there were only four taken against his team, he is a +1 Corsi for the game.
Goalie Quality Start:
Defined by when a goalie stops more than a league average percentage of shots (typically 91.2 percent) or when he allows two or fewer goals while stopping 88.5 percent.
An advanced stat for faceoffs, based on even-strength, non-empty net situation, road faceoffs. Then, it’s adjusted for strength of competition.
Last edited by Lafleurs Guy: 04-06-2012 at
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