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04-09-2012, 10:45 AM
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Mayor Bee
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The new "what to do about Howson" thread

It's been repeated many times that Columbus has a tendency to have late-season surges (seemingly every year) that serve no purpose except to cloud the true quality of the team. This is more or less a re-post of something I put together a couple weeks ago, which was lost in the realm of cyberspace due to a server error.

2000-01 -
Record after 60 games - 18-29-7-6 (.408)
Record in last 22 games - 10-10-2 (.500)
Record at trade deadline - 22-33-7-6 (.419)
Record after trade deadline - 6-6-2 (.500)

2001-02 -
Record after 60 games - 15-34-8-3 (.342)
Record in last 22 games - 7-13-0-2 (.364)
Record at trade deadline - 19-38-8-3 (.360)
Record after trade deadline - 3-9-0-2 (.286)

2002-03 -
Record after 60 games - 22-30-6-2 (.433)
Record in last 22 games - 7-12-2-1 (.386)
Record at trade deadline - 24-34-7-3 (.426)
Record after trade deadline - 5-8-1-0 (.393)

2003-04 -
Record after 60 games - 17-31-8-4 (.383)
Record in last 22 games - 8-14-0-0 (.364)
Record at trade deadline - 20-37-8-4 (.377)
Record after trade deadline - 5-8-0-0 (.385)

2005-06 -
Record after 60 games - 23-35-2 (.400)
Record in last 22 games - 12-8-2 (.591)
Record at trade deadline - 24-36-2 (.403)
Record after trade deadline - 11-7-2 (.600)

2006-07 -
Record after 60 games - 23-31-6 (.433)
Record in last 22 games - 10-11-1 (.477)
Record at trade deadline - 24-32-7 (.437)
Record after trade deadline - 9-10-0 (.474)

2007-08 -
Record after 60 games - 27-24-9 (.525)
Record in last 22 games - 7-12-3 (.386)
Record at trade deadline - 29-26-9 (.523)
Record after trade deadline - 5-10-3 (.361)

2008-09 -
Record after 60 games - 30-24-6 (.550)
Record in last 22 games - 11-7-4 (.591)
Record at trade deadline - 32-26-6 (.547)
Record after trade deadline - 9-5-4 (.611)

2009-10 -
Record after 60 games - 24-27-9 (.475)
Record in last 22 games - 8-8-6 (.500)
Record at trade deadline - 25-28-11 (.477)
Record after trade deadline - 7-7-4 (.500)

2010-11 -
Record after 60 games - 31-23-6 (.567)
Record in last 22 games - 3-12-7 (.295)
Record at trade deadline - 31-24-6 (.557)
Record after trade deadline - 3-11-7 (.310)

2011-12 -
Record after 60 games - 18-35-7 (.358)
Record in last 22 games - 11-11-0 (.500)
Record at trade deadline - 18-37-7 (.347)
Record after trade deadline - 11-9-0 (.550)

In my opinion, the only true late-season surge is 2005-06, when a roster that was essentially the same as it had been the entire season went on a tear toward the end. The only other one that might come close is this year (2011-12), which featured multiple trades, including the subtraction of Jeff Carter and the addition of Jack Johnson...I don't know that I put those two in the same category.

But outside of that, there isn't anything else to go on to indicate that "this always happens" or "it happens every year". It's a case of attempting to derive a pattern where there quite clearly is none.

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