Blown Leads: Some Interesting Stats
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04-12-2012, 12:01 AM
Join Date: Jun 2011
Originally Posted by
Fun fact about one-goal game winning percentage: it is not something that teams have shown themselves to be "good" or "bad" at over time. Teams that are good at it one year can be good, average, or bad at it the next year quite randomly. Winning one-goal game is just not a skill or a talent that teams have.
Combined with the Habs' "net" goal-differential of -2 (trimmed of shootouts and empty-netters) this points to the notion of a team that's very unlikely to repeat as last in the conference next year
even if nothing changes
. All bets are off if the next GM decides to "blow up the team", "rebuild via draft" or any other form of radical roster changes; but I figure we can expect the next GM to reload the talent sold off by Gauthier.
You're right, there is a random element to one-goal games. The best one-goal team this past season was Tampa, which obviously didn't translate to their overall record. Furthermore, there was nothing unusual about the number of one-goal games we played -- plenty of other teams had as many or more. We just lost more of them than they did, mostly in OT.
And I'll buy that some of those one-goal losses could become wins next year with nothing more than a goal here and there. I agree we're much better than last. But let's use this year as a wake-up call to acknowledge our weaknesses -- we are very thin on defense and offense. We lose steam as the game goes on because we play the hell out our one forward line and two or three solid defensemen, and have nothing else to throw out there. Combine that lack of talent depth with our youth's lack of experience and it's no surprise we couldn't hold leads. Which, in many cases, ended up as one of those one-goal losses.
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