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04-17-2012, 05:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
And yet Howe has been on two winners.

In think there is generally a plateau dropoff around the 70-75 range, so having a top pick, a late 2nd rounder and then an early 3rd rounder in a 32 team draft is actually an excellent way to start a team from a value perspective.

I have no idea why Orr's teams have never won one of these things. Probably just chance. He has been to at least one final that I know of. Gretzky and Mario are another matter; one problem with these two is that by the time your second pick comes up (unless you trade up), all of the good #1 defensemen are generally gone, which tends to make life pretty hard, though it's not insurmountable.

Also, picking at the beginnings/ends of rounds makes it generally harder to manuever through trades because of the bigger gaps between picks. All three of Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux are on strong teams this year, so maybe the curse will finally be broken.
I have a spreadsheet of stats / ATD draft positions / personal judgements on an old laptop that I haven't looked at in probably a year, so I can't speak to the 70-75 thing, but I definitely remember there begin spots where I thought, "Man, I'd love 5 picks all right here in this 20 pick range" about a couple different spots in the queue.

I think there's also something to be said about all-around players being more likely to achieve success in this thing than an equally-talented, one-dimensional player. Wayne Gretzky needs a speedy offensive winger (Kurri) and a worker on his line to be successful, and it will be a purely offensive trio, whereas Gordie Howe, Bryan Trottier, Ted Lindsay, Doug Harvey, etc are all like Burger King ... they'll give it to you how you want it and play on any type of line or team.

I remember starting one ATD with Larry Robinson, Bryan Trottier, Jari Kurri, Busher Jackson, Mike Modano and another Robinson and Chris Pronger, both of which are starts you can do pretty much anything with. My biggest train wreck of a team started Doug Harvey + Marcel Dionne + Luc Robitaille, and while I thought that was probably my best team, I couldn't draft enough defense / toughness to compensate for the "weakness" of my Quebecois forwards. It's easier to build a team around Gordie Howe's talents because you don't need to be as specific about what skills you're drafting.

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