Bob Cole Divisional Semifinals: Chicago vs. Philadelphia
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04-23-2012, 11:21 AM
Student Of The Game
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
I've got more two-way forwards than you do. If we're given credit for the guy having any sort of defensive reputation, you've got 7(Morenz, Noble, Fredrickson, Pavelich, Mosdell, McKenzie, and MacGregor) and I've got 8(Howe, Nieuwendyk, Moore, Primeau, Stanfield, Graves, Fleming, and Linden).
You missed George Hay, that would make it 8-8. Here is how I would rank the 24 starting forwards in this series defensively if I had to:
with four of the top 5 defensive forwards in the series I would have to say that there is more two-way ability in Chicago's lineup of forwards. But you are mostly right in that if you draw an imaginary line after Nieuwendyk, you both have 8 forwards above that line.
estimating Reg Fleming's PK prowess
Fleming killed just 18% of penalties post-expansion for teams 4% worse than average. During this time he scored 3 SHP in 288 games. In his pre-expansion career he scored 8 SHP in 461 games. Using SHP, something there is such a small sample size for, as an indicator to estimate PK time pre-expansion is dangerous, but I'll try.
It's a fairly simple calculation. If we know that 18% usage leads to about 0.010 SHP/gp, then you must be used about 70% more to score 70% more SHP/gp (0.017). 18*1.70 = 31%. as for how good his teams were on the PK, existing data shows that Fleming's teams averaged exactly average on the PK in 1964-1967 (.983, 1.023, 1.029, .964) - and the correllation between team GA and PK numbers is so weak in this period that there's no way to extrapolate GA to estimated PK efficiency in 1961 to 1963, so we have to just call that average.
So if his pre-expansion usage is 31% and 1.00 for 461 games and his post-expansion usage is 18% and 1.04 for 288 games, this would make his career record as follows:
26% usage for teams 1% worse than average.
This isn't like putting Bob Nystrom (who never killed penalties) on a PK, but he looks like he would be very far below average even on an ATD 2nd unit.
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