View Single Post
05-01-2012, 11:47 AM
#70
plusandminus
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 980
vCash: 500
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Czech Your Math (Study)
The table below may be of interest to you (and/or others). It shows the percentage of Pts, etc. from forwards of different age. Seasons aggregated are 1942-43 to 2010-11.
Ages are measured at 31th December of the season. (I basically take year of the season start minus birth year of the player.)
I first calculate each season individually. I have then aggregated them and divided by 68 (which is number of seasons studied).
Example (look at Age 22 in the table): During a typical season, 22 year olds have accounted for 7.580 % of the games played, 7.625 % of the goals scored, 7.136 % of assists scored, and 7.348 % of the pts being scored. Their pts percentage was slightly lower than their games played percentage, which is indicated by the last column (pPts/pGP=0.969).

 Age pGP pG pA pPts PtsPerGP 17 0.068 0.036 0.048 0.043 0.635 18 0.511 0.477 0.451 0.462 0.904 19 1.452 1.401 1.320 1.356 0.934 20 3.670 3.434 3.315 3.362 0.916 21 5.576 5.256 5.041 5.129 0.920 22 7.580 7.625 7.135 7.348 0.969 23 8.662 8.874 8.305 8.551 0.987 24 8.919 9.203 8.926 9.043 1.014 25 9.182 9.314 9.191 9.243 1.007 26 8.752 9.014 8.882 8.936 1.021 27 8.283 8.339 8.429 8.388 1.013 28 7.403 7.496 7.648 7.581 1.024 29 6.491 6.720 6.785 6.758 1.041 30 5.628 5.776 5.930 5.867 1.042 31 4.800 4.850 5.053 4.968 1.035 32 3.815 3.750 3.969 3.875 1.016 33 2.968 2.806 3.090 2.970 1.001 34 2.218 2.035 2.297 2.185 0.985 35 1.483 1.398 1.590 1.508 1.017 36 0.961 0.841 0.953 0.906 0.942 37 0.666 0.579 0.702 0.650 0.975 38 0.391 0.343 0.417 0.386 0.988 39 0.251 0.231 0.275 0.256 1.020 40 0.123 0.120 0.142 0.133 1.081 41 0.068 0.043 0.051 0.048 0.697 42 0.052 0.032 0.045 0.039 0.760 43 0.014 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.148 44 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 45 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 46 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 51 0.006 0.004 0.006 0.005 0.886 Sum 100 100 100 100

I think the table reveals some things. For example, players under the age of 29 generally have a higher goal percentage than assist percentage, while the players over 30 generally have the opposite. Differences are small, though.
Another thing is Gordie Howe being responsible for the 51 year old row in the table.

Players seem to somewhat peak around age 25 (where GP, G, A and Pts are highest). On the other hand, their points per game is highest around age 29-30. Perhaps injuries are starting to take their toll on players during their mid-20s, so that some can't play as much as before, but while playing still being able to produce? This study is daily new to me, so I haven't studied further.

Having played around with the data, and for example only included forwards that finished top-x among forwards in scoring, my impressions are that age 27 is generally a peak age.

The table above does not show trends. I will probably look more into that later, to for example see if peak/etc. may have changed from era to era.

For your study, I think age is important to consider. Maybe it would be somewhat ideal to for each season to focus mainly on players that are in a fairly "stable" age? At least you should look out for cases where a significant share of the players in your group are at a "improving" or "declining" age.

Edit: Notice that this post is completely forwards only. Everything in it has to do only with forwards.
Edit: It might have been better if I did this for Canadian players only, as European players ("green unit", etc.) starting their NHL careers at a later age might "bias" things.

Late Edit... And here's looking at Canadian forwards only (or rather players from 'canada','england','ireland','scotland','wales','s outh wales'):
 Age pGP pG pA pPts PtsPerGP 17 0.073 0.038 0.050 0.045 0.618 18 0.543 0.505 0.490 0.497 0.915 19 1.473 1.446 1.346 1.390 0.943 20 3.717 3.462 3.332 3.384 0.910 21 5.565 5.213 4.956 5.061 0.909 22 7.461 7.425 6.902 7.130 0.956 23 8.450 8.564 8.026 8.260 0.977 24 8.782 8.962 8.676 8.797 1.002 25 9.022 9.213 9.028 9.106 1.009 26 8.714 8.937 8.797 8.854 1.016 27 8.227 8.257 8.362 8.314 1.011 28 7.411 7.496 7.619 7.564 1.021 29 6.474 6.638 6.731 6.692 1.034 30 5.701 5.935 6.068 6.014 1.055 31 4.816 4.928 5.184 5.078 1.054 32 3.857 3.893 4.113 4.019 1.042 33 3.057 2.938 3.246 3.116 1.019 34 2.290 2.129 2.413 2.291 1.001 35 1.587 1.521 1.708 1.628 1.026 36 1.048 0.938 1.077 1.018 0.972 37 0.727 0.664 0.795 0.740 1.017 38 0.406 0.375 0.454 0.421 1.036 39 0.285 0.274 0.328 0.305 1.073 40 0.148 0.149 0.174 0.163 1.104 41 0.082 0.053 0.061 0.058 0.708 42 0.058 0.041 0.053 0.048 0.822 43 0.013 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.077 44 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 45 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 51 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.880
At quick first glance, I see no major differences.

Last edited by plusandminus: 05-02-2012 at 04:56 PM.