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05-01-2012, 12:47 PM
  #70
plusandminus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
(Study)
The table below may be of interest to you (and/or others). It shows the percentage of Pts, etc. from forwards of different age. Seasons aggregated are 1942-43 to 2010-11.
Ages are measured at 31th December of the season. (I basically take year of the season start minus birth year of the player.)
I first calculate each season individually. I have then aggregated them and divided by 68 (which is number of seasons studied).
Example (look at Age 22 in the table): During a typical season, 22 year olds have accounted for 7.580 % of the games played, 7.625 % of the goals scored, 7.136 % of assists scored, and 7.348 % of the pts being scored. Their pts percentage was slightly lower than their games played percentage, which is indicated by the last column (pPts/pGP=0.969).

AgepGPpGpApPtsPtsPerGP
17 0.068 0.036 0.048 0.043 0.635
18 0.511 0.477 0.451 0.462 0.904
19 1.452 1.401 1.320 1.356 0.934
20 3.670 3.434 3.315 3.362 0.916
21 5.576 5.256 5.041 5.129 0.920
22 7.580 7.625 7.135 7.348 0.969
23 8.662 8.874 8.305 8.551 0.987
24 8.919 9.203 8.926 9.043 1.014
25 9.182 9.314 9.191 9.243 1.007
26 8.752 9.014 8.882 8.936 1.021
27 8.283 8.339 8.429 8.388 1.013
28 7.403 7.496 7.648 7.581 1.024
29 6.491 6.720 6.785 6.758 1.041
30 5.628 5.776 5.930 5.867 1.042
31 4.800 4.850 5.053 4.968 1.035
32 3.815 3.750 3.969 3.875 1.016
33 2.968 2.806 3.090 2.970 1.001
34 2.218 2.035 2.297 2.185 0.985
35 1.483 1.398 1.590 1.508 1.017
36 0.961 0.841 0.953 0.906 0.942
37 0.666 0.579 0.702 0.650 0.975
38 0.391 0.343 0.417 0.386 0.988
39 0.251 0.231 0.275 0.256 1.020
40 0.123 0.120 0.142 0.133 1.081
41 0.068 0.043 0.051 0.048 0.697
42 0.052 0.032 0.045 0.039 0.760
43 0.014 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.148
44 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
45 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
46 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.006 0.004 0.006 0.005 0.886
Sum100100100100 

I think the table reveals some things. For example, players under the age of 29 generally have a higher goal percentage than assist percentage, while the players over 30 generally have the opposite. Differences are small, though.
Another thing is Gordie Howe being responsible for the 51 year old row in the table.

Players seem to somewhat peak around age 25 (where GP, G, A and Pts are highest). On the other hand, their points per game is highest around age 29-30. Perhaps injuries are starting to take their toll on players during their mid-20s, so that some can't play as much as before, but while playing still being able to produce? This study is daily new to me, so I haven't studied further.

Having played around with the data, and for example only included forwards that finished top-x among forwards in scoring, my impressions are that age 27 is generally a peak age.

The table above does not show trends. I will probably look more into that later, to for example see if peak/etc. may have changed from era to era.

For your study, I think age is important to consider. Maybe it would be somewhat ideal to for each season to focus mainly on players that are in a fairly "stable" age? At least you should look out for cases where a significant share of the players in your group are at a "improving" or "declining" age.

Edit: Notice that this post is completely forwards only. Everything in it has to do only with forwards.
Edit: It might have been better if I did this for Canadian players only, as European players ("green unit", etc.) starting their NHL careers at a later age might "bias" things.

Late Edit... And here's looking at Canadian forwards only (or rather players from 'canada','england','ireland','scotland','wales','s outh wales'):
AgepGPpGpApPtsPtsPerGP
17 0.073 0.038 0.050 0.045 0.618
18 0.543 0.505 0.490 0.497 0.915
19 1.473 1.446 1.346 1.390 0.943
20 3.717 3.462 3.332 3.384 0.910
21 5.565 5.213 4.956 5.061 0.909
22 7.461 7.425 6.902 7.130 0.956
23 8.450 8.564 8.026 8.260 0.977
24 8.782 8.962 8.676 8.797 1.002
25 9.022 9.213 9.028 9.106 1.009
26 8.714 8.937 8.797 8.854 1.016
27 8.227 8.257 8.362 8.314 1.011
28 7.411 7.496 7.619 7.564 1.021
29 6.474 6.638 6.731 6.692 1.034
30 5.701 5.935 6.068 6.014 1.055
31 4.816 4.928 5.184 5.078 1.054
32 3.857 3.893 4.113 4.019 1.042
33 3.057 2.938 3.246 3.116 1.019
34 2.290 2.129 2.413 2.291 1.001
35 1.587 1.521 1.708 1.628 1.026
36 1.048 0.938 1.077 1.018 0.972
37 0.727 0.664 0.795 0.740 1.017
38 0.406 0.375 0.454 0.421 1.036
39 0.285 0.274 0.328 0.305 1.073
40 0.148 0.149 0.174 0.163 1.104
41 0.082 0.053 0.061 0.058 0.708
42 0.058 0.041 0.053 0.048 0.822
43 0.013 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.077
44 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
45 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
51 0.007 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.880
At quick first glance, I see no major differences.


Last edited by plusandminus: 05-02-2012 at 05:56 PM.
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