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05-01-2012, 04:24 PM
  #74
plusandminus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
Actually a bit surprised by that data. I looked at very top forwards years ago, and remember their best years seemed to be ~22-29.

I would think very top players would tend to peak later than average, so wouldn't expect the average PPG highest at ages 28-31. Defensemen peaking later may have a good deal to do with this.
It's not really points per game, even though I happened to call the column that. It's rather some kind of ratio.
Notice that the differences are small.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blogofmike View Post
I still think top players peak in their early-mid twenties. The data may be skewed by the fact that anyone who is playing at 30-31 is a good player, otherwise they would have been culled, but the age is not old enough where everyone that age isn't getting top minutes any more.

Players who are 22 include more marginal players, like prospects who may or may not pan out than later age groups that have smaller shares of GP.

Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman were far better PPG producers at 24 than at 31, but top scorers account for a higher % of the games played at age 31 than at age 24, where numbers are dampened by the high number of GP by lesser players.
Yes, it is uncommon to win the scoring title when being 30+ years old.
The table below focus on being a top-5 scorer, and here the peak seems to be at age 26. I have excluded Gretzky, Mario and Gordie, who sort of "always" were top-5 scorers (but still only counting top-5 scorers, so if Mario and Gretzky were top-5, we'll get only three that season). From 1942-43 to 2010-11.

AgeCnt
193
208
2112
2221
2318
2429
2531
2635
2729
2823
2923
3015
3118
3215
339
343
353
361

Here are the "scoring title" winners only (among forwards), again excluding Gretzky, Mario and Gordie:
AgeCnt
191
201
225
232
245
253
2610
274
284
295
302
312
322
Esposito was the leading forward scorer seven straight seasons, from age 26-32, so if you want to exclude him you should subtract 1 from those ages.
Edit: Speaking of Esposito, his best seasons coincides very much with playing with a peak/prime Bobby Orr.


Last edited by plusandminus: 05-01-2012 at 04:33 PM.
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