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05-10-2012, 09:03 PM
  #105
JTG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
The problem is the size of the discount you're asking him to take. Sid and Geno both left a million and a half on the table (and they were restricted free agents coming on their second contracts). Put another way, Sid and Geno took about 15% less than what their unrestricted free agent value would have been. In the end, Orpik probably took a similar discount. Same with Neal this year (who's unrestricted free agent value probably would have been around 6M).

Now, Staal actually is an unrestricted free agent. He's 24 years old and is looking at signing quite possibly what will be the most lucrative contract of his career. Even with a more restrictive CBA, his free agent value, IMO, is going to be north of 7M. So, taking a 15% discount means signing in the low 6M range.

That, I could see him doing with the Penguins. BUT, anything south of 6M, and you're not asking him to take a discount. You're asking him to bend over and do more than Sid or Geno did in terms of being willing to take less.

End of the day, Staal has next to nothing to lose and everything to gain by waiting to test his market value in free agency.

Where I think the equation changes is if he's traded to a team where he's willing to commit, because that team will acquire him with the understanding that it will cost maybe 7M to keep him and a willingness to pay that amount. That's when Staal has next to nothing to gain and everything to lose by not signing with that new team, especially when you consider what any failure to meet what will be the high expectations for what would be his 1C role and the terms of the new CBA could mean.
100 point players are in the 7 million dollar per year range. I can't see many GM's being willing to give him a deal like that, especially GM's who are leading contenders. That's a ridiculously risky move.

Jordan Staal's comparables have him in the 5-6 range. In the opened market, a team will overpay for him, but not to the tune of 1.0+ million dollars. Not going to say I couldn't see it happening, but I don't think it's very likely, unless he put together a 35-40 goal, 70-80 point campaign season this year.

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