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05-11-2012, 04:59 PM
  #19
Hockey Outsider
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dalton View Post
I think anyone using or assuming Gausian distribution in their adjustments should take a look at the results of this large study which included NHL players.
Here's a chart showing the distribution of adjusted save percentages. I'm only using goalies with 300+ minutes; that threshold is arbitrary, but there needs to be some kind of arbitrary threshold or else we'd be looking at statistically meaningless results for goalies who faced only a few dozen shots.



The largest single category (90% to 91%) straddles the mean and features nearly 25% of all observations. Although there are more observations above the mean than below, the distribution appears to follow roughly a bell curve.

If the average save percentage was 90.5%, but most goalies were actually stopping say 85% but Patrick Roy and a few other superstars were stopping 95%, than another distribution (and therefore another method to evaluate goalies) might be more meaningful. Let me know if I've misunderstood your post.

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