Goalies: Adjusted Playoff Save Percentage
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05-11-2012, 04:26 PM
Join Date: Sep 2005
Originally Posted by
If the average save percentage was 90.5%, but most goalies were actually stopping say 85% but Patrick Roy and a few other superstars were stopping 95%, than another distribution (and therefore another method to evaluate goalies) might be more meaningful. Let me know if I've misunderstood your post.
Ultimately, it's not going to be a normal distribution, but (something) reasonably approximating the right-end tail of one. There are thousands of goaltenders out there who could post an NHL save percentage six standard deviations lower than the NHL average, and on the other hand, there are none (because none would get that opportunity).
The other poster is suggesting that it follows a power distributions, and he's probably right (I've written and spoke enough on the topic to know that power distributions handle outliers far more reasonably). I don't think that it matters too much in this context.
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