Goalies: Adjusted Playoff Save Percentage
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05-11-2012, 04:40 PM
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Regina, SK
Originally Posted by
I can understand that. It was just that I remember someone doing it for the regular season, and that it might have been you. I haven't looked into the playoffs at all myself, and have no idea how much that kind of adjustment would change stats. For example, Philadelphia used to take many penalty minutes during the regular season, and if that meant they played more PK than most other teams, it may even further push their goalies up (Lindbergh. Perhaps Parent?) (But this is to me completely hypothetical as I don't even know if they played more PK during the playoffs than other teams.).
Since we don't know the PPOA for the teams in the playoffs before a certain year, this would have to be estimated using team PIM. But we do have enough information available to draw reasonable conclusions: The fighting majors earned by the teams in the regular season, the number of PIMs they had, and the number of PPOAs those PIMs resulted in. You would get results that are pretty close, I think.
If anyone really wants to do the work, they can scour the HSP game-by-game to find exactly how many PPs each team faced.
You are right that facing a higher percentage of your shots from the PP is going to drag down your sv%. Adjusting for actual shot quality is probably more important than just situational adjustments, but particularly for pre-lockout seasons where that data doesn't exist I think situational adjustments get us closer to the truth than further away.
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