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05-11-2012, 05:30 PM
  #25
Hockey Outsider
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Ultimately, it's not going to be a normal distribution, but (something) reasonably approximating the right-end tail of one. There are thousands of goaltenders out there who could post an NHL save percentage six standard deviations lower than the NHL average, and on the other hand, there are none (because none would get that opportunity).

The other poster is suggesting that it follows a power distributions, and he's probably right (I've written and spoke enough on the topic to know that power distributions handle outliers far more reasonably). I don't think that it matters too much in this context.
Thanks for the explanation - I have a better understand of that now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
I can understand that. It was just that I remember someone doing it for the regular season, and that it might have been you. I haven't looked into the playoffs at all myself, and have no idea how much that kind of adjustment would change stats. For example, Philadelphia used to take many penalty minutes during the regular season, and if that meant they played more PK than most other teams, it may even further push their goalies up (Lindbergh. Perhaps Parent?) (But this is to me completely hypothetical as I don't even know if they played more PK during the playoffs than other teams.)
Yes, I looked into it with my recent post about 2009-2012 regular season stats. I think shot situations are worth taking into account, though of course there's a trade-off. In this case, I decided that the additional information that this adjustment would produce is not worth the dozens of hours it would take me to accumulate, organization and analyze the data. If anyone is interested in doing this, I can send them what I've worked on thus far.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
I think you have a few duplicates in your third table, the one showing Stanley Cup winners. I noticed it when counting the occurences of Patrick Roy's name, but also Fuhr occurs twice. Roy anyhow looks impressive! Before I started spending time here, I suspected he might have been somewhat overrated, because I've seen him make many mistakes too (especially when handling the puck behind/around the net). But in threads like this one he (or his stats) lives up to his high reputation.
Thanks, that's a good catch. I updated the table.

Had you asked me five years ago, I would have said that Hasek was the greatest goalie of all-time by a sizable margin. Although I still have Hasek first, I now rank Roy a very close second. Relative to their peers, Hasek was only marginally better at stopping the puck than Roy (though I do recognize that Hasek played against a better peer group).

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